The Real Insanity

By Aik Awaz - One Voice

 
Mr Dhruva Jaishankar’s article — The Definition of Insanity is US Af-Pak Strategy — is perfectly in line with the current anti-Pakistan insanity sweeping India. What is amazing is that Foreign Policy published it.

Mr Jaishankar starts by quoting Donald Trump when he calls US leaders stupid and losers. He links this to the top US leader President Obama and his decision to maintain forces upto 9700 US troops in Afghanistan through 2015 and 2016. He does this to make just one point — that the real problem in Afghanistan is not the Taliban — it is the Pakistan Army and the ISI but the stupid US leadership just cannot understand this. Only Mr Jaishankar understands because it is the fully blooded and thoroughly battle hardened Pakistan military that gives him and his compatriots in India the jitters. Mr Obama’s decision is sound and is based on a very clear estimate of the current situation in Afghanistan and the paradigm shift in Pakistan’s strategic direction that leads to convergence of interests between the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

India just cannot accept the new changed realities in Pakistan.  Mr Jaishnkar says lets ‘cut the crap’ and then proceeds to dole out large dollops of pure unadulterated crap. He is doing what many Indians and their sponsored lackeys are doing ever since Pakistan’s economy stabilized, China announced the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) as part of its ‘One Belt-One Road’ strategy and Russian-Pakistan relations warmed up — writing madly to malign the Pakistan military, their nemesis-the ISI (Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency) and Pakistan’s nuclear capability. The fact that the Pakistani Prime Minister is going on a state visit to the US and media reports have suggested that there may be discussion on the possibility of a nuclear agreement with Pakistan has sent the Indians into overdrive. A bevy of retired diplomats and an assortment of so called “freelance writers and researchers” have been activated and pressed into service. It seems that their outpourings are being orchestrated by an Indian-American in a prestigious US think tank in Washington DC. 

Mr Jaishankar tries to backtrack from India’s irresponsible enunciation of a ‘cold start doctrine’ now being called a ‘proactive strategy’ but this is not possible. Neither is it possible to gloss over the fact that India started the nuclear venture in South Asia way back in 1974. Nor can anyone forget that India created and backed the Mukht Bahini in former Bangladesh thereby laying the seeds for terrorism. Pakistan has been reacting in line with its security concerns. This is what has led to Pakistan adopting full spectrum deterrence and a deployment of forces that will defeat any ‘cold, warm or hot start by India — as stated by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff. The problem is that if India thinks it can use its mad Hindu radicals to stage a false flag event in India and then undertake a ‘punitive strike’ against Pakistan to humiliate its military then India needs to think again. This can go horribly wrong if India’s attack or raid fails or even if it stalemates because the Hindu radicals will want escalation. Or Indian estimates of Pakistani reaction can be way off the mark.

Pakistan is not supporting any Taliban. It is fighting an insurgent movement called the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TPP) that has been driven out of Pakistan and has sanctuary in Afghanistan. India is sponsoring their activities in Pakistan. With the US and Afghanistan, Pakistan is supporting the stability of Afghanistan and an end to the struggle by the Afghan Taliban. The US understands this and also fully understands Pakistan’s nuclear program and the security measures that are in place. You cannot fight and talk to the Afghan Taliban at the same time — Pakistan knows this even if Mr Dhruva does not. The fact that the US-India Nuclear Agreement gives India the capacity to up its fissile material production through unsafeguarded military facilities is not lost on Pakistan so it has to act in its own interests. A US-Pakistan dialogue on this issue is not a bad idea at all.

Mr Dhruva needs to take his blinkers off and see the reality. His ranting and raving against Pakistan is totally unwarranted. What he should examine is what is happening in his own country — saffron clad war painted cow worshiping Hindu extremists on the rampage under the umbrella of a government that needs their support to survive. An Australian was almost lynched for having the tattoo of a Hindu idol on his leg and backside. A Muslim man was lynched by a crazed mob on the false assumption that he had beef in his fridge. A truck driver has been murdered on the false assumption that he had beef in his truck. A crazed Hindu mob attacked the book launching by Pakistan’s former foreign minister who foolishly decided to launch the book in India. A member of the state assembly in Kashmir attacked and smeared with black ink for criticizing the beef ban. Pro India cricket officials who went to India to revive cricket were attacked and hounded out of Mumbai — why anyone from Pakistan should go to India is beyond comprehension. A state Chief Minister with a 40 year history with Hindu extremists has said that those who want to eat beef should leave India. All this is happening in a country which is the largest beef exporter — India. Surely the extremist Hindus know what happens to the bulls and cows that are exported — they are certainly not treated as fathers and mothers.

No country is without issues

By Fatima Rizvi
ZONEASIA-PK

In todays interconnected world no country is alone because the media makes sure that everything is splashed across in headlines and breaking news breaks. One just has to take the time to survey the world. Right now the Somali terrorist group Al Shabab is carrying out bombings in Somalia and Kenya. Sudan is facing the atrocities committed by Boko Haram. Al Nusra is fighting in Syria and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has declared an Islamic Caliphate in the areas it has captured. Iran and Syria are supporting opposing sectarian factions and Israel is supporting an independent Kurdistan. Syria and Iraq could lose parts of their territory. Iran could intervene strongly and this could spark a long drawn out sectarian war in the Middle East with possible spill over into South Asia. Thailand is under military rule after a coup. Myanmar is having anti-Muslim riots. Egypt has had an election that has elected its former Army Chief after an amazing 98 percent turn out but protests continue!! The Taliban are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s military is carrying out decisive operations against insurgents. Much much  more is happening across the world.

In the UK the media is reporting details of at least six separate probes into allegations of sexual abuse of children. This comes after the exposure of the Catholic clergy’s involvement in child abuse. Two celebrities — Jimmy Saville and Rolf Harris have been tried and convicted of sex crimes. Rolf Harris — a much loved entertainer — has betrayed the trust reposed in him and stands disgraced. There are allegations that politicians were involved in sex abuse of children in the 80’s and that their activities were reported but covered up by a complicit bureaucracy. A former Home Secretary has been questioned over rape allegations. In France the former President is under investigation. China has violence in its Sinkiang region. India’s north east has long running insurgencies. The list is endless. These are mind boggling events that defy understanding.

A fly on the wall looking dispassionately into Pakistan would see a military machine that is the glue holding the country together. Rangers and Frontier Corps troops officered by the Pakistan military are battling separatists in the south western Baluchistan province and criminal mafias and extremists in urban areas especially the port city of Karachi. The military has undertaken a decisive operation against insurgents — the Pakistani Taleban — in the western border areas and may be called upon to do much more should there be a backlash in the cities. The military’s intelligence agency — the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) — is the premier intelligence organization in the country. In spite of this massive support to the elected government there are debates on civil-military relations and the military’s intentions! Political activity that should have abated and been relegated to the back burner continues full tilt with threats of a march on the nation’s capital. The only consolation is that Pakistan is not alone — the world is in turmoil. Pakistan has an elected government, democracy, strong established institutions and a strong cohesive military. Pakistan needs leadership to set it on the right track. Not being alone may be some consolation but it is not enough. Pakistan is alone as far as charting its destiny is concerned.

FORK TONGUED PALEFACES

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA man and now affiliated with a Washington think-tank is no friend of Pakistan. This much was always clear from his writings. Now an article written by him and published in India’s Hindustan Times seems to indicate that he is no friend of India’s either. What he has proposed as an agenda for India’s new Prime Minister could lead to a disastrous situation in South Asia.

Mr Riedel and many others in the think-tank community are in a time warp. Their mind sets have not changed. They refuse to believe that countries like India and Pakistan can ever think straight and that they are forever condemned to stew in their own juices. They cannot see the changes sweeping the region or refuse to see those changes because if they did how would they justify the dire predictions that they need to make to stay in their think-tank jobs. There are many such experts around. One of the funniest sights on the Track II circuit is a group of eminent Indians and Pakistanis sitting around a table in discussions moderated and funded by Western think tanks with a ‘paleface’ telling the ‘Indians’ what is good and what is not good for them. Sad but true.

Mr Riedel seems to be telling Mr Modi that Pakistan is firmly and irrevocably wedded to the strategic depth doctrine and that come 2015 Pakistan’s ISI will team up with the Taliban to orchestrate a take-over in Afghanistan. Something that did happen once in the 1990’s but since then a lot has changed. Based on this hypothesis he goes on to advise Mr Modi to confront and rout the ISI in Kabul. He is unabashedly suggesting an India-Pakistan confrontation in Afghanistan. An unstated, but sinister design, in this suggested strategy maybe the idea of Washington, Delhi, Kabul and others putting their heads together to do in Pakistan and its ISI should such a confrontation become a reality. What happens to India and Pakistan—two nuclear weapon states—after that does not seem to be a concern.

Mr Riedel’s suggestion in the past was for US intervention to involve China and Saudi Arabia to coerce India to compromise on Kashmir. He thought at that time that with Kashmir resolved India and Pakistan would not face off in Afghanistan and the US would have its way there. The implication being that it was the India –Pakistan rivalry and not flawed US strategy that was the problem in Afghanistan. Now with the US leaving his thinking has changed to exactly the opposite—an India-Pakistan confrontation in Afghanistan. If this is also what the US wants then it does not make sense for it to roll over and play dead—it should be up and about with its Drones and other fire power decimating the Taliban so that the ISI strategy never takes off unless the idea is to actually let India and Pakistan confront each other so that India falls into the US lap.

Mr Modi has been voted in by his people in the hope that he will better the lot of all Indians and he has promised to do so. He can be a strong leader with an independent bent of mind and this is what disturbs the US think-tank community. Modi will think of India first. His focus will be the economy and domestic harmony. Confrontation with Pakistan is not likely to be his agenda unless such a situation is engineered by external interference. Pakistan is no longer for strategic or any other kind of depth. Pakistan wants internal stability and an end to violence and for this it needs to have good bilateral relations with it neighbors including India and Pakistan. Pakistan will not want confrontation—it will compete but it will cooperate. Like India its focus will be on the economy and its people. Those who think otherwise do so because they do not understand the changed dynamics in Pakistan or because they do not want to.

The future of their countries and the region is in the hands of two elected Prime Ministers—Mr Modi of India and Mr Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. They will be wise if they keep external meddlers away and interact with each other for the sake of their people.

By Ghalib Sultan

The author is a freelance writer & thinker. Readers may contact the author through his blog: http://ghalibsultan.wordpress.com