The Real Insanity

By Aik Awaz - One Voice

 
Mr Dhruva Jaishankar’s article — The Definition of Insanity is US Af-Pak Strategy — is perfectly in line with the current anti-Pakistan insanity sweeping India. What is amazing is that Foreign Policy published it.

Mr Jaishankar starts by quoting Donald Trump when he calls US leaders stupid and losers. He links this to the top US leader President Obama and his decision to maintain forces upto 9700 US troops in Afghanistan through 2015 and 2016. He does this to make just one point — that the real problem in Afghanistan is not the Taliban — it is the Pakistan Army and the ISI but the stupid US leadership just cannot understand this. Only Mr Jaishankar understands because it is the fully blooded and thoroughly battle hardened Pakistan military that gives him and his compatriots in India the jitters. Mr Obama’s decision is sound and is based on a very clear estimate of the current situation in Afghanistan and the paradigm shift in Pakistan’s strategic direction that leads to convergence of interests between the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

India just cannot accept the new changed realities in Pakistan.  Mr Jaishnkar says lets ‘cut the crap’ and then proceeds to dole out large dollops of pure unadulterated crap. He is doing what many Indians and their sponsored lackeys are doing ever since Pakistan’s economy stabilized, China announced the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) as part of its ‘One Belt-One Road’ strategy and Russian-Pakistan relations warmed up — writing madly to malign the Pakistan military, their nemesis-the ISI (Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency) and Pakistan’s nuclear capability. The fact that the Pakistani Prime Minister is going on a state visit to the US and media reports have suggested that there may be discussion on the possibility of a nuclear agreement with Pakistan has sent the Indians into overdrive. A bevy of retired diplomats and an assortment of so called “freelance writers and researchers” have been activated and pressed into service. It seems that their outpourings are being orchestrated by an Indian-American in a prestigious US think tank in Washington DC. 

Mr Jaishankar tries to backtrack from India’s irresponsible enunciation of a ‘cold start doctrine’ now being called a ‘proactive strategy’ but this is not possible. Neither is it possible to gloss over the fact that India started the nuclear venture in South Asia way back in 1974. Nor can anyone forget that India created and backed the Mukht Bahini in former Bangladesh thereby laying the seeds for terrorism. Pakistan has been reacting in line with its security concerns. This is what has led to Pakistan adopting full spectrum deterrence and a deployment of forces that will defeat any ‘cold, warm or hot start by India — as stated by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff. The problem is that if India thinks it can use its mad Hindu radicals to stage a false flag event in India and then undertake a ‘punitive strike’ against Pakistan to humiliate its military then India needs to think again. This can go horribly wrong if India’s attack or raid fails or even if it stalemates because the Hindu radicals will want escalation. Or Indian estimates of Pakistani reaction can be way off the mark.

Pakistan is not supporting any Taliban. It is fighting an insurgent movement called the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TPP) that has been driven out of Pakistan and has sanctuary in Afghanistan. India is sponsoring their activities in Pakistan. With the US and Afghanistan, Pakistan is supporting the stability of Afghanistan and an end to the struggle by the Afghan Taliban. The US understands this and also fully understands Pakistan’s nuclear program and the security measures that are in place. You cannot fight and talk to the Afghan Taliban at the same time — Pakistan knows this even if Mr Dhruva does not. The fact that the US-India Nuclear Agreement gives India the capacity to up its fissile material production through unsafeguarded military facilities is not lost on Pakistan so it has to act in its own interests. A US-Pakistan dialogue on this issue is not a bad idea at all.

Mr Dhruva needs to take his blinkers off and see the reality. His ranting and raving against Pakistan is totally unwarranted. What he should examine is what is happening in his own country — saffron clad war painted cow worshiping Hindu extremists on the rampage under the umbrella of a government that needs their support to survive. An Australian was almost lynched for having the tattoo of a Hindu idol on his leg and backside. A Muslim man was lynched by a crazed mob on the false assumption that he had beef in his fridge. A truck driver has been murdered on the false assumption that he had beef in his truck. A crazed Hindu mob attacked the book launching by Pakistan’s former foreign minister who foolishly decided to launch the book in India. A member of the state assembly in Kashmir attacked and smeared with black ink for criticizing the beef ban. Pro India cricket officials who went to India to revive cricket were attacked and hounded out of Mumbai — why anyone from Pakistan should go to India is beyond comprehension. A state Chief Minister with a 40 year history with Hindu extremists has said that those who want to eat beef should leave India. All this is happening in a country which is the largest beef exporter — India. Surely the extremist Hindus know what happens to the bulls and cows that are exported — they are certainly not treated as fathers and mothers.

Fair’s unfair affair with Pakistan

ZONEASIA-PK

Christine Fair’s most recent article (tirade) — ‘America’s Pakistan Policy is Sheer Madness’ is a true masterpiece of distortion and opinionated utterances. She calls members of the US Congress, White House, Departments of Defense and State pusillanimous besides faulting them for not just a flawed policy but a policy that harms US interests. Strong words from a lady who is now accepted as a major part of the anti Pakistan landscape and no doubt there is a good reason for what she has become — a bitter scorned woman who must claw, rip, smear and malign to vent her frustrations. In one of her face book postings she compared a Pakistani medium range missile to a ’Chihuawa’s penis’ — perhaps a psychiatrist needs to analyze and get to the bottom of her disturbed mind and vengeful anger.

As to the muddled arguments she puts forth the less said the better. She asks the US to forge a new policy for Pakistan. This is exactly what the US has done on the basis of past experience and in the US’ best interests. Today the US and Pakistan have a convergence of interests over a range of issues including Afghanistan. The result is a serious move towards Pakistan-Afghanistan cooperation against the common threat of the Taliban operating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The past policies that she alludes to and in fact bases her arguments on are just that — past policies no longer relevant. Why were they there in the first place? They were there because of the uncertainty in US/NATO presence in Afghanistan and an ambiguous attitude towards the Taliban (Taleban). Once the uncertainty went away under Obama Pakistan policy crystallized and after President Ashraf Ghani came in this policy is being implemented. This policy best serves the interests of the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan and the region if not the world. So why go back into the past just bring down your own policy makers. If a new policy is needed then it should be one that extends greater support to Pakistan.

Ms Fair is critical of the arms given and sold to Pakistan and the funds released to Pakistan under various heads. She takes her figures from the Congressional Research paper. The figures are no doubt accurate and impressive when yo add them up but not so impressive when you look at the time span they cover and factor in the three decades of violence in Pakistan’s western neighborhood. These are a fraction of what Pakistan required. Also missing in the tally of human losses is the number of Afghans and Pakistanis killed and the atrocities committed on them. These need to be factored in. Consider also the NATO logistics that moved across Pakistan. Compute the tonnages and the damage to the infra structure.

Ms Fair has mentioned Osama bi Laden. Yes there are questions that a inquiry commission has no doubt answered but it has not been made public. Pakistan will decide what is best in its own interest. Ms Fair might want to investigate how 19 Arabs could live, travel, train over months and possibly years in the US till they hijacked three passenger planes and blew up the World Tower and the Pentagon without anybody knowing anything at all.

There are many madnesses going around. The Shia-Sunni conflict in the Middle East. Its origin bears investigation. The rise of radicalization and extremism also bears investigation. Pakistan is doing its best to ward off these dangers to the fabric of its society and it has to modulate its policy not to satisfy a frustrated female but to ensure its own interests and it is well aware of those. Pakistan is a victim of  and not a perpetrator.

India and Pakistan are fully aware of the danger that a war would create. There are no signs of any such conflict except in fevered imaginations. Pakistan is fully aware of the asymmetry in conventional power and so is the US. This asymmetry rules out any adventure or irresponsible action by Pakistan but Pakistan will never allow this asymmetry to reach a stage where one side can dictate. Pakistan’s policy is one of deterrence and good relations with all its neighbors. The Us understands this and does not need to be given tutorials.

Fair’s unfair affair with Pakistan

ZONEASIA-PK

Christine Fair’s most recent article (tirade) — ‘America’s Pakistan Policy is Sheer Madness’ is a true masterpiece of distortion and opinionated utterances. She calls members of the US Congress, White House, Departments of Defense and State pusillanimous besides faulting them for not just a flawed policy but a policy that harms US interests. Strong words from a lady who is now accepted as a major part of the anti Pakistan landscape and no doubt there is a good reason for what she has become — a bitter scorned woman who must claw, rip, smear and malign to vent her frustrations. In one of her face book postings she compared a Pakistani medium range missile to a ’Chihuawa’s penis’ — perhaps a psychiatrist needs to analyze and get to the bottom of her disturbed mind and vengeful anger.

As to the muddled arguments she puts forth the less said the better. She asks the US to forge a new policy for Pakistan. This is exactly what the US has done on the basis of past experience and in the US’ best interests. Today the US and Pakistan have a convergence of interests over a range of issues including Afghanistan. The result is a serious move towards Pakistan-Afghanistan cooperation against the common threat of the Taliban operating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The past policies that she alludes to and in fact bases her arguments on are just that — past policies no longer relevant. Why were they there in the first place? They were there because of the uncertainty in US/NATO presence in Afghanistan and an ambiguous attitude towards the Taliban (Taleban). Once the uncertainty went away under Obama Pakistan policy crystallized and after President Ashraf Ghani came in this policy is being implemented. This policy best serves the interests of the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan and the region if not the world. So why go back into the past just bring down your own policy makers. If a new policy is needed then it should be one that extends greater support to Pakistan.

Ms Fair is critical of the arms given and sold to Pakistan and the funds released to Pakistan under various heads. She takes her figures from the Congressional Research paper. The figures are no doubt accurate and impressive when yo add them up but not so impressive when you look at the time span they cover and factor in the three decades of violence in Pakistan’s western neighborhood. These are a fraction of what Pakistan required. Also missing in the tally of human losses is the number of Afghans and Pakistanis killed and the atrocities committed on them. These need to be factored in. Consider also the NATO logistics that moved across Pakistan. Compute the tonnages and the damage to the infra structure.

Ms Fair has mentioned Osama bi Laden. Yes there are questions that a inquiry commission has no doubt answered but it has not been made public. Pakistan will decide what is best in its own interest. Ms Fair might want to investigate how 19 Arabs could live, travel, train over months and possibly years in the US till they hijacked three passenger planes and blew up the World Tower and the Pentagon without anybody knowing anything at all.

There are many madnesses going around. The Shia-Sunni conflict in the Middle East. Its origin bears investigation. The rise of radicalization and extremism also bears investigation. Pakistan is doing its best to ward off these dangers to the fabric of its society and it has to modulate its policy not to satisfy a frustrated female but to ensure its own interests and it is well aware of those. Pakistan is a victim of  and not a perpetrator.

India and Pakistan are fully aware of the danger that a war would create. There are no signs of any such conflict except in fevered imaginations. Pakistan is fully aware of the asymmetry in conventional power and so is the US. This asymmetry rules out any adventure or irresponsible action by Pakistan but Pakistan will never allow this asymmetry to reach a stage where one side can dictate. Pakistan’s policy is one of deterrence and good relations with all its neighbors. The Us understands this and does not need to be given tutorials.

THE INDIAN HUB

By ZoneAsia-Pk

Pakistan has officially and clearly indicated that India is involved in supporting terrorism in Pakistan. The Pakistan Army Chief is said to have personally handed over a dossier to the US during his visit to the US. It goes without saying that he must have given the information to the Afghan President, the British Prime Minister and the Chinese President during his visits and meetings. Pakistanis have always believed that India would never forego the opportunity to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerabilities to keep it destabilized. If any more proof is needed then there is the video of the Indian Security Adviser laying out a blue print for actions against Pakistan. The orchestrated violence on the LOC and the strange explosion in a boat on the open seas are the physical manifestations of the Modi-Duval policy against Pakistan.

What the US has done with the information given to it is not known besides the stated determination to eliminate the mastermind of the Peshawar atrocity. The recent visit of the US President to India was shrouded by the bonhomie generated by ecstatic first name mentions, bear hugs and wide smiles. The most tangible result seems to have been the progress on the globally destabilizing nuclear agreement, the region destabilizing defense pact and the China irritating document detailing the joint strategic vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The Joint Communiqué and the Friendship document were just the standard cosmetic outcomes of all such visits. While answering a question on Pakistan the US President did highlight the importance of a stable prosperous Pakistan and in his departing comments he pointedly referred to the dangers of religious extremism—-knowing full well that Hindu extremist organizations had fully backed Modi’s rise to power and were still influencing policies. Pakistanis watched with amusement the public antics of a man once considered a pariah for the atrocities he had committed and the President of the country that had declared him persona non grata.

Read Complete Article Here: THE INDIAN HUB

No country is without issues

By Fatima Rizvi
ZONEASIA-PK

In todays interconnected world no country is alone because the media makes sure that everything is splashed across in headlines and breaking news breaks. One just has to take the time to survey the world. Right now the Somali terrorist group Al Shabab is carrying out bombings in Somalia and Kenya. Sudan is facing the atrocities committed by Boko Haram. Al Nusra is fighting in Syria and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has declared an Islamic Caliphate in the areas it has captured. Iran and Syria are supporting opposing sectarian factions and Israel is supporting an independent Kurdistan. Syria and Iraq could lose parts of their territory. Iran could intervene strongly and this could spark a long drawn out sectarian war in the Middle East with possible spill over into South Asia. Thailand is under military rule after a coup. Myanmar is having anti-Muslim riots. Egypt has had an election that has elected its former Army Chief after an amazing 98 percent turn out but protests continue!! The Taliban are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s military is carrying out decisive operations against insurgents. Much much  more is happening across the world.

In the UK the media is reporting details of at least six separate probes into allegations of sexual abuse of children. This comes after the exposure of the Catholic clergy’s involvement in child abuse. Two celebrities — Jimmy Saville and Rolf Harris have been tried and convicted of sex crimes. Rolf Harris — a much loved entertainer — has betrayed the trust reposed in him and stands disgraced. There are allegations that politicians were involved in sex abuse of children in the 80’s and that their activities were reported but covered up by a complicit bureaucracy. A former Home Secretary has been questioned over rape allegations. In France the former President is under investigation. China has violence in its Sinkiang region. India’s north east has long running insurgencies. The list is endless. These are mind boggling events that defy understanding.

A fly on the wall looking dispassionately into Pakistan would see a military machine that is the glue holding the country together. Rangers and Frontier Corps troops officered by the Pakistan military are battling separatists in the south western Baluchistan province and criminal mafias and extremists in urban areas especially the port city of Karachi. The military has undertaken a decisive operation against insurgents — the Pakistani Taleban — in the western border areas and may be called upon to do much more should there be a backlash in the cities. The military’s intelligence agency — the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) — is the premier intelligence organization in the country. In spite of this massive support to the elected government there are debates on civil-military relations and the military’s intentions! Political activity that should have abated and been relegated to the back burner continues full tilt with threats of a march on the nation’s capital. The only consolation is that Pakistan is not alone — the world is in turmoil. Pakistan has an elected government, democracy, strong established institutions and a strong cohesive military. Pakistan needs leadership to set it on the right track. Not being alone may be some consolation but it is not enough. Pakistan is alone as far as charting its destiny is concerned.

Past, Present and Future

Spearhead Analysis

The ancient Greeks believed that you walk into the future with your eyes fixed on the past. They obviously meant that lessons need to be learnt from the past so that the same mistakes are not made again and again. This is particularly true for states that not only end up with faulty policies but persist in following those policies even when it has been proved beyond doubt that those are disastrous policies. For more than two decades the US persisted with a failed policy in Vietnam till it had to beat a panicky retreat. Now from within the US and the UK credible voices are telling us that the invasion of Iraq was based on fabricated stories of WMD and Al Qaeda connections that were simply not there — the result has been the Arab Spring. In Afghanistan too nothing was learnt from the defeat of the former USSR and a policy of backing one ethnic group against another laid the seeds for prolonged conflict with serious consequences for the region.

Iraq was held together by an Iraqi who understood his people and the dangers of a sectarian conflict sponsored by Saudi Arabia and Iran. He kept Al Qaeda away and did not venture towards WMD as he did not want to provoke Israel and the US. He did have a powerful Army and he had oil. The US invasion of Iraq has unleashed a violent Shia-Sunni conflict as a sequel to the violent upheavals in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Syria. The ISIL-the Islamic Army in the Levant — has announced an Islamic State in parts of Syria and Iraq under its control. The Kurds are vying for independence and Israel supports their quest. The future looks bleak as the US steps in with support for the Iraqi military — and indirectly for Iran and Syria. The future looks bleak except for the fact that the young revolutionaries who brought in mind boggling changes through the Arab Spring will not accept relics of the past as their leaders.

In Afghanistan the US backing of the former USSR linked Northern Alliance against the Pashtun south and its strategic shift towards India in South Asia created the uncertainties that led to Pakistan’s policy that addressed its own concerns and fears. Now, trillions of dollars and thousands of lives later the US is again leaving Afghanistan, and Afghanistan not withstanding its newly minted army, stands on the brink of a north-south divide as the Taliban go on the offensive and the election result becomes controversial. Pakistan has launched a well-timed military operation to clear its western FATA areas to prevent a South Afghanistan-FATA nexus that leads to an ISIL type Islamic State with spillover into Pakistan. Pakistan’s quest for internal and external security must be fully supported in regional and extra regional interest.

Much will depend on how much has been learnt from the recent past and how the present evolving situation is assessed to forge policies for the future. The US should harness Iranian and Chinese concerns and fully support Pakistan’s land air offensive to destroy the Taliban — not just militarily but with economic and political resources. This will also involve restraining India and encouraging it to improve relations with Pakistan. The ongoing Pakistan-Afghanistan interaction is a step in the right direction and must also be supported as these two countries have seen three decades of violence because of the policies of external powers and they have the most to lose if they do not cooperate in their own interest. The same is true for India and Pakistan future relations. The future can be bright if the right policies emerge from the debris of the past.

(Spearhead Analyses are collaborative efforts and not attributable to a single individual)

www.spearheadresearch.org

FORK TONGUED PALEFACES

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA man and now affiliated with a Washington think-tank is no friend of Pakistan. This much was always clear from his writings. Now an article written by him and published in India’s Hindustan Times seems to indicate that he is no friend of India’s either. What he has proposed as an agenda for India’s new Prime Minister could lead to a disastrous situation in South Asia.

Mr Riedel and many others in the think-tank community are in a time warp. Their mind sets have not changed. They refuse to believe that countries like India and Pakistan can ever think straight and that they are forever condemned to stew in their own juices. They cannot see the changes sweeping the region or refuse to see those changes because if they did how would they justify the dire predictions that they need to make to stay in their think-tank jobs. There are many such experts around. One of the funniest sights on the Track II circuit is a group of eminent Indians and Pakistanis sitting around a table in discussions moderated and funded by Western think tanks with a ‘paleface’ telling the ‘Indians’ what is good and what is not good for them. Sad but true.

Mr Riedel seems to be telling Mr Modi that Pakistan is firmly and irrevocably wedded to the strategic depth doctrine and that come 2015 Pakistan’s ISI will team up with the Taliban to orchestrate a take-over in Afghanistan. Something that did happen once in the 1990’s but since then a lot has changed. Based on this hypothesis he goes on to advise Mr Modi to confront and rout the ISI in Kabul. He is unabashedly suggesting an India-Pakistan confrontation in Afghanistan. An unstated, but sinister design, in this suggested strategy maybe the idea of Washington, Delhi, Kabul and others putting their heads together to do in Pakistan and its ISI should such a confrontation become a reality. What happens to India and Pakistan—two nuclear weapon states—after that does not seem to be a concern.

Mr Riedel’s suggestion in the past was for US intervention to involve China and Saudi Arabia to coerce India to compromise on Kashmir. He thought at that time that with Kashmir resolved India and Pakistan would not face off in Afghanistan and the US would have its way there. The implication being that it was the India –Pakistan rivalry and not flawed US strategy that was the problem in Afghanistan. Now with the US leaving his thinking has changed to exactly the opposite—an India-Pakistan confrontation in Afghanistan. If this is also what the US wants then it does not make sense for it to roll over and play dead—it should be up and about with its Drones and other fire power decimating the Taliban so that the ISI strategy never takes off unless the idea is to actually let India and Pakistan confront each other so that India falls into the US lap.

Mr Modi has been voted in by his people in the hope that he will better the lot of all Indians and he has promised to do so. He can be a strong leader with an independent bent of mind and this is what disturbs the US think-tank community. Modi will think of India first. His focus will be the economy and domestic harmony. Confrontation with Pakistan is not likely to be his agenda unless such a situation is engineered by external interference. Pakistan is no longer for strategic or any other kind of depth. Pakistan wants internal stability and an end to violence and for this it needs to have good bilateral relations with it neighbors including India and Pakistan. Pakistan will not want confrontation—it will compete but it will cooperate. Like India its focus will be on the economy and its people. Those who think otherwise do so because they do not understand the changed dynamics in Pakistan or because they do not want to.

The future of their countries and the region is in the hands of two elected Prime Ministers—Mr Modi of India and Mr Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. They will be wise if they keep external meddlers away and interact with each other for the sake of their people.

By Ghalib Sultan

The author is a freelance writer & thinker. Readers may contact the author through his blog: http://ghalibsultan.wordpress.com