Pathetic Performance

Fatima Rizvi's Blog

No one in Pakistan is surprised by what Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US says because everyone understands that he has to brown- nose his masters to get brownie points so that he can stay on there and mouth the words that are music to his parent countries enemies and their lackeys. What does come as a surprise is the fact that he is invited to give testimony before a Congressional Committee and the consensus is that he in invited because they want to hear what they know he is going to say.

Mr Haqqani claims in his testimony to be speaking for the intelligentsia in Pakistan. Open any Pakistanis blog and you will find it littered with words like — scumbag, traitor, turncoat, tail-wagger, bootlicker, pathetic excuse for a man etc. totally missing are words of praise or appreciation from the so called intelligentsia he claims to represent.

He tells Congress that Pakistan is six times smaller in population and has an economy one tenth the size of India and in the same breath he says that Pakistan could ‘menace’ India if it is given F-16 aircraft and helicopters or if any kind of nuclear agreement with Pakistan is even considered. Does he think there are morons in Congress who will swallow such drivel and will they believe that Pakistan would be foolish enough to initiate conflict with India in today’s environment. He also informs what must be a singularly dense Congress that aircraft and helicopters will not be used by Pakistan in the fight against terror. So what is Pakistan using in the successful war being waged against terrorism? The US military could tell him and Congress what the Pakistan military is doing and with what and to whom and with what effect.

He goes on to say that the US has a policy of appeasement towards Pakistan and that this encourages Pakistan to have ambitions of rivaling India by achieving parity. The US appeasing Pakistan — shouldn’t it be the other way around? With the asymmetry that exists between India and Pakistan is it possible for Pakistan to rival India or aim for parity? Pakistan is doing what every other country is doing — developing capacity that deters aggression and Pakistan will keep doing this in its national interest. No one in Pakistan is drooling over the prospect of a nuclear agreement with the US — all that they want is for a special for India discriminatory policy by the US to end. This is what can fuel conflict in South Asia — conflict that neither India nor Pakistan wants. This is what having a strong military and nuclear capacity is all about — so all this talk of threats being created to match the size of the military is just pure and simple drivel.

He trots out an impressive figure in dollars that the US has given to Pakistan since 1950. He does not state what Pakistan has done for the US and what cost and not just in dollars but in human lives. The US and Pakistan have a relationship that has endured and they have the wisdom and maturity to look beyond their differences as current trends are indicating and surely Congress knows this.

#ParisAttacks Fake video by Hate Video Channel on YouTube

BACKGROUND

[On the morning of 7 January 2015 at about 11:30 local time, two brothers, Saïd and Chérif Kouachi, forced their way into the offices of the French satirical weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris. Armed with assault rifles and other weapons, they killed 11 people and injured 11 others in the building. After leaving, they killed a French National Police officer outside the building. The gunmen identified themselves as belonging to the Islamist terrorist group Al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen, who took responsibility for the attack.]

[Cricket World Cup 2015 started from the mid January 2015. As soon as the schedule was announced, Pakistani youths like from all others cricket playing nations started cheering for their team. Please see this link which is from Cricket Dot Com PK (http://schedule.cricket.com.pk/) which gives details of Cricket Schedule 2015/2016 - All International Events.]

CONTENT ANALYSIS

In the video below, which was posted on January 7^th 2015 on a “hate video blog” hosted on YouTube, which the Google search engine is displaying as:

UK - Pakistani Muslims 'celebrating' ATTACKS IN FRANCE ...

<a href="/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=5&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CDMQtwIwBGoVChMIxNemttqWyQIVCVoaCh1e4wvE&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DlaC06lAe50Q&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkhDWOhl4vibfnx4HI2jIPdpp_aw&amp;sig2=j44Edt6neUb7Os95gCkO4g&amp;bvm=bv.107467506,d.d24" onmousedown="return rwt(this,'','','','5','AFQjCNHkhDWOhl4vibfnx4HI2jIPdpp_aw','j44Edt6neUb7Os95gCkO4g','0CDMQtwIwBGoVChMIxNemttqWyQIVCVoaCh1e4wvE','','',event)" data-href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laC06lAe50Q">UK - Pakistani Muslims 'celebrating' ATTACKS IN FRANCE ...</a>

Pakistani people celebrating PARIS attack in england (luton ...

Video URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy-5_ezi-2g

<a href="/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=video&amp;cd=2&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;sqi=2&amp;ved=0CCoQtwIwAWoVChMItIPM3NuWyQIVB7QUCh2C_g7e&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Djy-5_ezi-2g&amp;usg=AFQjCNH2B94zdhd8aHhGfKVa8CXd7AwFIQ&amp;sig2=TO9c86Qc7YeIZbsdGbKf7A&amp;bvm=bv.107467506,d.d24" onmousedown="return rwt(this,'','','','2','AFQjCNH2B94zdhd8aHhGfKVa8CXd7AwFIQ','TO9c86Qc7YeIZbsdGbKf7A','0CCoQtwIwAWoVChMItIPM3NuWyQIVB7QUCh2C_g7e','','',event)" data-href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy-5_ezi-2g">Pakistani people celebrating PARIS attack in england (luton ...</a>

If you carefully listen to the audio and compare it to other genuine unaltered videos, the chants are “Jeetay ga… Pakistan jeetay ga” (Will win… Pakistan will win) additionally the siren like sound is a classic noise from an air horn used by cricket spectators / fans from Pakistan and sometimes from India.

CONCLUSION

The source of this video which has been intentionally tagged with fake description and optimized for Google’s search engine comes from a YouTube channel called “new to Islam” with the following URL: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9LrjZDubbjdKW5Td5WPNug

The ten months old video poster claims that Pakistan youth based in UK Tooting  / Luton are celebrating Paris attacks on Charlie Hebdo from January 7 2015. It is not claiming celebrations of the recent Paris Atacks although the video has started showing up again in the search results as the search terms being used are same as the ones used for January 2015 Paris Attacks.

This channel is openly anti-Islam and anti-Pakistan and posts “stuff” which would hurt the targets directly by damaging their global reputation and / or hurt the feeling of the targeted community. In short it’s a “hate channel” hosted on YouTube and as Google owns YouTube this video and other content from this channel is accessible on the web.

Obama - Sharif talks: Dog-whistle politics

By Aik Awaz - One Voice

In light of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s second official visit to the US since 2013, the media was abuzz with speculating what the agenda of the meeting would be. With Obama’s decision to retain troops in Afghanistan till 2017, this meeting gained even more significance as the decision meant that the two countries will continue spearheading the fight against terrorism in the region for the foreseeable future. While some experts felt that nuclear escalation in the region and relations with India would form the core of the agenda, others pointed out that a stable Afghanistan would be Obama’s only concern towards the end of his tenure; however, a compilation of ten issues that Obama needs to address published on the Huffington Post really took the cake. Penned by Malik Siraj Akbar, who would more than qualify as an ‘expert’ given his credentials dismally failed to live up to all the accolades he has received as a journalist. While the internet is flooded with articles that criticize just for the sake of criticism and further a certain agenda, this one stood out for the lack of depth and understanding with regards to the very basic issues it raises.

While all of the ten points aren’t worthy of being addressed, a couple them deserve to be countered as they have been circulating in the realm of social media for quite a while. Starting with Pakistan’s complacence when it comes to taking action against outfits such as the LeT, it is as simple as chalking out a strategy and prioritizing according to exceptional circumstances. Pakistan’s armed forces have been deployed in tribal regions to eradicate the networks of al Qaeda and the TTP, and taking into consideration the volatile situation of the region and arrival of ISIS in Afghanistan, the forces will be stationed in the region till at least 2019. Pakistan faces a long-term struggle against terrorism and more importantly against extremism, but Mr. Siraj should be aware of the fact all the militant outfits cannot be dealt with a mere swoosh of the wand.

Mr. Siraj feels that “Obama must urge Sharif to repeal, or at least reform, the infamous blasphemy law, which is mostly used against religious minorities.” Apart from the fact this issue would not even be considered as part of the agenda by the Obama administration, it seems that the author is oblivious to the on-ground realities and widespread extremism in the country. Misuse and exploitation of the law has been a recognized issue before Nawaz Sharif came to power again in 2013, and such reform cannot take place in vacuum unless a shift comes about in the way the Pakistani society views the law. That shift has been taking place gradually though, the recent judgment of the Mumtaz Qadri trial and even more recent statement by the Supreme court stating that calls for improvement of the Blasphemy law are not objectionable point to the fact that small but significant steps are being taken to improve the implementation of the law. 

With regards to the situation in Baluchistan, there has never been any doubt that the Baloch people harbor legitimate grievance. However, there is no denying the fact that external involvement in the province has been a serious obstacle in the path of the Pakistani administration that has attempted to adopt more inclusive measures to address and tackle the prevailing issues in Baluchistan. Moreover, one would wonder why Obama would choose to address this issue, while he chooses to regard the Kashmir issue as an internal one. 

The author also touches upon other issues such as the Cybercrime Bill, sectarian violence, and the ‘return’ of the death penalty. With regards to the cybercrime bill, there have been concerns over the intrusion of privacy and curtailing of dissent; however, President Obama would think twice before raising this issue because of the countless number of fundamental human rights violations that have taken place under the Patriot act (NSA being exposed by Edward Snowden). Moving on to sectarian violence, as mentioned previously, extremism is more of a threat to Pakistan compared to terrorism; precisely because the latter can be curbed using force while the former cannot. Mr. Siraj confidently states, “Sharif, the only politician to run the country for a third term, has made no policies to curb violence and hatred against religious and sectarian minorities nor does it appear on his list of things to do in the future.” It could be the case that the author is unaware of the recent operation that wiped out the top leadership of LeJ recently, or the fact that the federal government last month announced the commencement of an operation in Southern Punjab targeting exclusively sectarian militants. At last, no one claims that military courts are an ideal situation; but taking into account the lack of judicial reform that has taken place, the backlog of pending cases in civilian courts, issues with regards to the witness protection act etc, it is understandable as to why military courts are being considered as an option in such exceptional circumstances. As far as the death penalty is concerned, President Obama would know better than to point a finger towards Pakistan as states such as Connecticut are debating over its merits, and more importantly the simple fact that it is an internal issue. 

Considering the fact that the Huffington Post has an ever-growing active community and was also ranked #1 on the 15 Most Popular Political Sites list by eBizMBA Rank according to traffic in 2012, perhaps it would serve the renowned news aggregator well if more stringent standards were put in to place to prevent the publishing of half-cooked agenda driven write-ups.

Of Traitors and Patriots; India-Pakistan ‘Experts’

There is a common perception amongst SAARC countries about Indians and their lobbyists in Washington: If you ask them how their country is doing, they will talk about China. If you ask them what is wrong with their country, they will tell you what is wrong with Sri Lanka. If you ask how they can fix their country they will tell you what Pakistan is not doing to fix their country and also as a corollary create problems for the United States of America. If you ask what the future holds for India, they will tell you what the past (starting from the creation of Pakistan) looks like.

Perhaps this is why they start paragraphs with ‘gosh’ in news outlets and exclaim that Pakistani Foreign policy is hard to explain. After all, their writing is meant, it seems, to gain readership of the ever encouraged ‘pak-phobes’ which, unfortunately, the Huffington Post wants to tap into. All their narratives have the same tune, the USA is unwise when it comes to Pakistan and it must realize that its inhabitants are akin to the biblical people of Gog and Magog.

Keeping up with the ‘pak-phobes’ viewpoint means just one thing; write about Pakistan as an ‘expert’ while sitting comfortably in the land of ‘honey boo boo’ and ‘black lives don’t matter.’  Extra dollar pings if the ‘phobe’ is an American Pakistani with a massive chip on their shoulder. Peddling fiction as fact assured by the backing of influential media-types and their corresponding ‘brown sahib’ academics (read South Asian pawns who have been given inflated titles such as ‘analysts’).

Of the many such pawns, one twinkie eating ill-informed Malik Siraj Akbar pops up. His recent article titled ‘Sharif’s Futile Trip to Washington’ is laden with false claims and assumptions. He starts by stating that the recent trip by the Pakistani Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif consisted mostly of ‘whining’ about India and externalizing their problems. This is an interesting claim considering it is, in fact, India that is famous for blaming all its internal and external issues on others. For example, it has popularized the narrative that problems in Tamil Nadu are due to Sri Lanka, in Bihar because of Bangladesh, in NEFA the mischief is by China, any other problem anywhere even to the extent of beef eating is due to Pakistan and its ISI. If anything happens in Afghanistan then also it is Pakistan’s fault.

In his article, the writer says that the USA has taken the Indian side regarding the Kashmir dispute. This would be a rather perplexing development (if it were true), because it would result in the USA ceasing to support the UNMOGIP and the recalling of the peace keeping force deployed to monitor the ceasefire since 1948. Perhaps he needs to be reminded that it was India, and not Pakistan, that took the Indo-Pak Kashmir dispute to the United Nations, while Pakistan was urging for a localized resolution. Also never has the U.S. given a statement supporting the Indian claims on Kashmir, except insisting on a peaceful resolution of the dispute. Maybe Mr. Akbar was present during a confidential conversation the rest of us are not privy to.

Cementing his ‘pak-phobe’ credentials he begins to accuse Islamabad of being a rouge terrorist sponsoring state. This view point nauseating given the fact that Pakistan still continues to do more in the ‘war on terror’ than the architects of the phrase themselves. Pakistan is and has always gone against terrorism in all forms and manifestations.  LET and its likes have no state backing. The Jihadist culture is a left over agenda from the Afghan war. Has the world in which Mr. Akbar lives forgotten the Mujahedeen visiting the White House and Congress? They were treated like the Robin Hood's up to and until their utility ran out. The lethargic fact checking of this article further rises to the surface when Mr. Akbar attempts to justify his rants by stating odd things. He insinuates that the Pakistanis to one up India deliberately leaked the rumors of the talks of a Pakistan-U.S. civil nuclear deal. The fact that this was leaked by American journalists and not denied by the White House seems to have been missed by him. Then he attempts to distort historical facts by stating that the Kargil incident was linked to a jihadist movement. Again he must be sleeping because the Kargil conflict occurred in reaction to Indian aggression in Siachen.

It would seem that the joint statement after Nawaz Sharif's visit and the dossier kept by United States of Indian terrorism in Baluchistan, FATA and Karachi seems to have raised hackles in 'Whine land" or India. This is the reason a spate of articles claiming that generals wrote Nawaz Sharif’s brief on what to say in his meeting with President Obama seem to be flooding the news. It is clearly beyond these ‘analysts’ skill set to understand statecraft and how the prime minister would need input from all the institutions of the nation before proceeding for talks with any country. The fact that the U.S. has after a long time been fair in dealings in the subcontinent and has kept Pakistan and India on the same plane on all issues; whether Kashmir, Nuclear or Terrorism, seems to have led many a ‘pak-phobe’ to scurry about and distort the true picture. A picture in which  Pakistan is now being recognized as a geopolitical hub and road way to peace and economic well being of South and West Asia.

The Real Insanity

By Aik Awaz - One Voice

 
Mr Dhruva Jaishankar’s article — The Definition of Insanity is US Af-Pak Strategy — is perfectly in line with the current anti-Pakistan insanity sweeping India. What is amazing is that Foreign Policy published it.

Mr Jaishankar starts by quoting Donald Trump when he calls US leaders stupid and losers. He links this to the top US leader President Obama and his decision to maintain forces upto 9700 US troops in Afghanistan through 2015 and 2016. He does this to make just one point — that the real problem in Afghanistan is not the Taliban — it is the Pakistan Army and the ISI but the stupid US leadership just cannot understand this. Only Mr Jaishankar understands because it is the fully blooded and thoroughly battle hardened Pakistan military that gives him and his compatriots in India the jitters. Mr Obama’s decision is sound and is based on a very clear estimate of the current situation in Afghanistan and the paradigm shift in Pakistan’s strategic direction that leads to convergence of interests between the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

India just cannot accept the new changed realities in Pakistan.  Mr Jaishnkar says lets ‘cut the crap’ and then proceeds to dole out large dollops of pure unadulterated crap. He is doing what many Indians and their sponsored lackeys are doing ever since Pakistan’s economy stabilized, China announced the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) as part of its ‘One Belt-One Road’ strategy and Russian-Pakistan relations warmed up — writing madly to malign the Pakistan military, their nemesis-the ISI (Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency) and Pakistan’s nuclear capability. The fact that the Pakistani Prime Minister is going on a state visit to the US and media reports have suggested that there may be discussion on the possibility of a nuclear agreement with Pakistan has sent the Indians into overdrive. A bevy of retired diplomats and an assortment of so called “freelance writers and researchers” have been activated and pressed into service. It seems that their outpourings are being orchestrated by an Indian-American in a prestigious US think tank in Washington DC. 

Mr Jaishankar tries to backtrack from India’s irresponsible enunciation of a ‘cold start doctrine’ now being called a ‘proactive strategy’ but this is not possible. Neither is it possible to gloss over the fact that India started the nuclear venture in South Asia way back in 1974. Nor can anyone forget that India created and backed the Mukht Bahini in former Bangladesh thereby laying the seeds for terrorism. Pakistan has been reacting in line with its security concerns. This is what has led to Pakistan adopting full spectrum deterrence and a deployment of forces that will defeat any ‘cold, warm or hot start by India — as stated by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff. The problem is that if India thinks it can use its mad Hindu radicals to stage a false flag event in India and then undertake a ‘punitive strike’ against Pakistan to humiliate its military then India needs to think again. This can go horribly wrong if India’s attack or raid fails or even if it stalemates because the Hindu radicals will want escalation. Or Indian estimates of Pakistani reaction can be way off the mark.

Pakistan is not supporting any Taliban. It is fighting an insurgent movement called the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TPP) that has been driven out of Pakistan and has sanctuary in Afghanistan. India is sponsoring their activities in Pakistan. With the US and Afghanistan, Pakistan is supporting the stability of Afghanistan and an end to the struggle by the Afghan Taliban. The US understands this and also fully understands Pakistan’s nuclear program and the security measures that are in place. You cannot fight and talk to the Afghan Taliban at the same time — Pakistan knows this even if Mr Dhruva does not. The fact that the US-India Nuclear Agreement gives India the capacity to up its fissile material production through unsafeguarded military facilities is not lost on Pakistan so it has to act in its own interests. A US-Pakistan dialogue on this issue is not a bad idea at all.

Mr Dhruva needs to take his blinkers off and see the reality. His ranting and raving against Pakistan is totally unwarranted. What he should examine is what is happening in his own country — saffron clad war painted cow worshiping Hindu extremists on the rampage under the umbrella of a government that needs their support to survive. An Australian was almost lynched for having the tattoo of a Hindu idol on his leg and backside. A Muslim man was lynched by a crazed mob on the false assumption that he had beef in his fridge. A truck driver has been murdered on the false assumption that he had beef in his truck. A crazed Hindu mob attacked the book launching by Pakistan’s former foreign minister who foolishly decided to launch the book in India. A member of the state assembly in Kashmir attacked and smeared with black ink for criticizing the beef ban. Pro India cricket officials who went to India to revive cricket were attacked and hounded out of Mumbai — why anyone from Pakistan should go to India is beyond comprehension. A state Chief Minister with a 40 year history with Hindu extremists has said that those who want to eat beef should leave India. All this is happening in a country which is the largest beef exporter — India. Surely the extremist Hindus know what happens to the bulls and cows that are exported — they are certainly not treated as fathers and mothers.

INCREDIBLE OBSESSIONS

TACSTRAT ANALYSIS

An Editorial in India’s NORTHLINE newspaper of October 16 makes interesting reading. The fact that it is written by a former Foreign Secretary gives it some importance even though not all retired foreign secretaries are equal. The title of the article says it all—“US-Pakistan Nuclear Deal: Why India should see America as no friend”. It could easily have been—: “How Dare the US even think of a Nuclear Deal with Pakistan”. So far there is no official indication that the US wants to discuss any sort of nuclear deal with Pakistan but there have been reports in the US media and two credible writers have authored articles suggesting such a possibility — David Ignatius and Sanger. So perhaps something is in the offing or is being considered. The article suggests that a prompt denial of the media reports would have assuaged Indian outrage and in the absence of such a denial “speculation could damage its (US) relations with India” — the message to the US being that deny these reports pronto or else. Else what?

According to the media reports the talks with Pakistan on this issue if they do take place will be led by Peter Lavoy from the White House. Lavoy is an old South Asia Hand and knows the score. If indeed he leads the US side then he will do so competently, objectively and impartially. This is an aspect that has been ignored. The US will do what is in its interest to further its policy in South and West Asia.

Also ignored is the possibility that the US on its own has come to the conclusion that Pakistan has made a paradigm shift in strategic direction and has to be brought on board on the basis of converging interests and not the transactional agreements of the past. After all Pakistan has evolved a unique civil-military relationship to suit its own environment — a relationship that sustains democracy and brings the organizational and structural strength of the military in support of the elected government so that the immediate vulnerabilities being exploited by ‘others’ to destabilize and isolate Pakistan are defeated and all institutions strengthened for effective orchestration of state power. Not everyone is happy with these positive developments it seems!! There is probably a conviction that by raking up the past you can fog the present and also that the US will buckle under intimidation, threats and imagined fears—not a very complimentary view of an ally, especially an ally who is bending over backwards to woo you!!

Pakistan has stated clearly and unambiguously that it wants peace and a resolution of issues with its eastern neighbor through a dialogue. Pakistan has also made it clear to the world that it is for peace and stability in Pakistan and that it is not supporting and will not support any faction that is bringing violence and instability in Afghanistan and will do its best to bring about reconciliation through talks. Pakistan’s leadership has also determined and stated that its main security threat is internal and that its vulnerabilities are being exploited by ‘external forces’ in multiple ways. It in on the basis of these declared facts that Pakistan has developed responses and capacities that are delivering results and rapidly sidelining threats. Threatening any neighbor or supporting any faction that creates internal problems or jeopardizes bilateral relations is not a part of Pakistan’s present strategic response. With its focus on present and future economic challenges and opportunities Pakistan will not be side-tracked into actions that distract it. So no amount of ranting about a civil-military divide or military domination or past events will change the perceptions of the present reality. Pakistan is not the only country that has concerns about the country specific US-India Nuclear Agreement under which India gets access to nuclear trade and gets away with unsafeguarded military nuclear facilities with only its civilian facilities under safeguards. The boost that India gets for undetected fissile material production is what the FMCT needs to address and this certainly raises concerns in Pakistan. Pakistan has said that its nuclear program is security or insecurity driven because of the existing and rapidly growing asymmetry in the conventional weapons balance in South Asia. Pakistan has been forced to go for full spectrum deterrence to ensure that its deterrence remains credible. Pakistan does not threaten India—it cannot—but India by the strides it is taking in the conventional and nuclear fields threatens Pakistan because it does not agree to dialogue, because it pressures Pakistan on the borders and the Line of Control in Kashmir and because it has mounted a relentless campaign to destabilize, discredit, malign and isolate Pakistan especially its military establishment that for some reason looms large in India’s strategic concerns. So it’s no surprise that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor that is being seen positively by the world including the US and Russia is not viewed the same way by India. Pakistan does not threaten India with nuclear or conventional weapons and it has no desire to create problems for itself by actions that are clearly not acceptable in today’s global environment that stresses connectivity, trade and energy flows.

Hypothetically what is wrong with the reasoning that—“in return for an NSG waiver, Pakistan will be asked to restrict its nuclear program to weapons and delivery systems that are appropriate to its actual defense needs against India’s nuclear threat, and not to deploy missiles beyond a certain range”. Pakistan had suggested a bilateral restraint regime in the past so does this possible agreement, if ever executed, evoke the fear that the real destabilizing force in South Asia will be unmasked? It has been rightly stated that Pakistan may not agree to such an agreement because India parades the threat from China as the reason for its inordinate military expansion forgetting that almost all its forces are arrayed against Pakistan? So can Pakistan be faulted for being India centric? The US did sanction Pakistan when it determined that such action was warranted but on what basis should it sanction Pakistan now—certainly not on the say so of another country.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan will be visiting the US soon. He will go with the full backing of all institutions including the military and the people of Pakistan. In the discussions he will discuss Pakistan’s concerns and will listen to what the US says. He will do what is in Pakistan’s best interests because now there is no ambiguity or doubt about the positive role that Pakistan wants to play in the region and beyond the region. His visit is likely to be followed by a visit by the Chief of Army Staff. The US has not introduced uncertainty about its strategic intentions towards India, the US has signaled acceptance of Pakistan’s good intentions and a desire to reciprocate and help Pakistan. After all, anti US policy rhetoric in Pakistan notwithstanding, the US and Pakistan have been allies in the worst of times and the best of times.

DARK INDIA

Who was Muhammad Akhlaq? He was a young hard working Muslim living in a village in India. One day the village priest told the Hindus of the village that Muhammad Akhlaq had slaughtered a cow and that its meat was in a freezer in his home. Hardly anything to bother about yet the enraged crazy mob of Hindu zealots attacked Akhlaq’s home dragged him out and bludgeoned him to death. Akhlaq’s wife was bruised and his young son suffered head injuries in the senseless attack and is fighting for his life in the ICU of the hospital. The mad Hindus have been arrested but their supporters have threatened that there will be consequences if they are not released.

Who was Graham Staines? He was an Australian missionary working to better the lot of the people in the province of Orissa, India. He was attacked by a mob of crazed Hindu fundamentalists for his work. He sought refuge in his car with his two terrified young sons. The mad Hindus set fire to the car refusing to let them come out. Graham Staines and his two young sons were roasted alive in the car. It is not known if anyone was punished or even arrested.

Who was Esan Jaffery? He was an Indian Muslim living in Gujarat state of India when the present Prime Minister of India was the Chief Minister there. In 2002 rioting Hindus with the support or complete indifference of the state killed him and more than 2000 other Muslims. Mr Jaffery’s widow is seeking justice through India’s judicial system. She is unlikely to get it.

Beef has been banned in some states in India. A Hindu radical movement called Sam’adhan Sena is spreading across India. They patrol the streets looking for anyone eating beef so that he can be killed. The cow is worshipped by Hindus in India and some even drink cow urine. Yet India is the second largest exporter of beef in the world. Surely the Hindus know what happens to the cows they export. They are certainly not worshipped. Indians also have no qualms over using cow hide to make footwear which is exported around the world. They must know from where the cow hide comes. So is the rage of the crazy radical fundamental Hindus only for venting against Indian Muslims?

The fundamentalist, extremist nationalist Hindu fervor is at its peak under Mr Modis government. His party the BJP is backed by the violent extremist Hindu organization called the RSS (Rajyasevam Sangh). Recently Mr Modi went to an RSS convention and with folded hands asked them for approval of his policies as Prime Minister. Mr Modi as Chief Minister of Gujarat presided over the Muslim pogrom in his state and was widely condemned. He was also denied a travel visa to the US—a ban that was revoked when he became Prime Minister and showed his willingness to brown nose the Americans.

The cheering crowd of Indians who welcomed Mr Modi in Silicon Valley must have fed on juicy beef steaks washed down with a good Californian Red. Chew on all this as you think of Shining India and Make in India—and do not forget Mr Modi’s assertion that the Hindu God with an elephants head was the first ever plastic surgery case in the world thousands of years ago!

The 1857 mutiny against British colonial rule was brutally suppressed by the British. Not only did they commit unspeakable atrocities against the Hindus and Muslims who had joined hands to throw them out of India but in the aftermath they poisoned the Hindu –Muslim relationship through a deliberate policy. Churchill is said to have gloated over the success of this divide and rule policy. The policy endures—at least among the Hindus of India.

Pak – India: Playing with Fire

TACSTRAT ANALYSIS

For the past couple of months, both India and Pakistan have been engaged in low level shelling on each other’s positions across the Line of Control that bifurcates the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In recent weeks, we have witnessed a considerable rise in violence. Both the sides continue to blame the other for triggering violence and mutual threats suited to a war setting have followed ever since. In a welcome step, the chiefs of the Indian Border Security Force and its counterpart, the Pakistan Rangers, met in New Delhi over three days and from the outlook the talks seemed productive. This came after the calling off of NSA-level talks between the two neighbors, which had originally been agreed to by the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers on the sidelines of the SCO summit in UFA earlier in July, when they agreed to revive the dialogue process which has stuttered to a halt.

While such low intensity exchanges on the LoC have been witnessed in the past and the two sides have succeeded in keeping them localized affairs, the present situation is far more dangerous because many experts believe that this could be part of a larger strategic tussle about the nature of bilateral engagement. Pakistan is of the view that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is attempting to fundamentally and permanently alter the rules of engagement of the bilateral relationship by taking Kashmir off the negotiating table. While Pakistan previously adopted the policy of ‘Kashmir first’, Modi now seems to be shifting towards the other extreme of a ‘terrorism first’ approach. This is precisely what led to the NSA-talks being cancelled as Pakistan responded to Modi’s strategy by hyping up the Kashmir issue by inviting the Hurriyat leaders to meet its visiting national security adviser in Delhi—an accepted routine in the past.

Moeed Yusuf, a security expert, explains in his recent article that this hold up is a cause of concern. Apart from the obvious risks of escalation in a nuclearised environment, tensions at this stage will have direct consequences on the stability of the region. With the Pakistan army engaged in its most expansive counterterrorism operation on multiple fronts, any distraction on its eastern border will give the TTP and its affiliated al-Qaeda presence breathing space to rejuvenate its operations. This would be playing into the hands of al-Qaeda once again, as they previously took advantage of the tense situation that ensued between the neighbors after the 26/11 attacks. In an effort to push Modi to leave the rules of bilateral engagement untouched, Pakistan has raised the profile of recent LoC incidents. Modi is thus far unmoved since India continues to ride the international wave of support owing to its economic importance, and also the fact that the international community is more likely to consider terrorism as the more pressing concern compared the issue of Kashmir.

Many are also of the view that India could be looking to take advantage of the fact that the Pakistani army has been stretched throughout the country. This imbalance of our forces on two fronts, has encouraged India to test our nerves, by consistent violation of the Line of Control (LOC), and may well venture across the LOC to escalate the situation, India may also try to provoke Pakistan, violating Afghan borders, because it has considerable influence over there and their agents are fairly active on both sides of the border. Keeping such theories aside, both the sides need to take into consideration the delicate situation that exists in the region as a whole before they allow this crisis to escalate any further. Such petty tactical or strategic ploys cannot be played out in isolation without having a significant bearing on the already precarious situation in the region. India also needs to realize that it also has a stake in the war Pakistan is currently embroiled in. Rather than hyping up trivial issues and using the media as a tool to add to the already toxic atmosphere, it needs to look at the larger picture. Perhaps the Indian security administration has forgotten that the TTP is just a cog in the larger machine of al-Qaeda that serves the purpose of wreaking havoc in Pakistan as a reaction to its alliance with US on the war on terror. Al-Qaeda for years has been planning on making in-roads into India as it looks to expand its war-base in line with their ideology inspired by Syed Qutb. Therefore, instead of playing with fire, it is imperative that the two neighbors deal with the current situation in a more circumspect manner.

Good Governance; Fortifying Pakistan’s Turnaround Story

ZoneAsia-Pk

The Government of Pakistan has, till now, remained politically savvy. It has however now been tested with the present bout of tensions that have come forth in a rush. This is not the first time that the political leadership has come under the spotlight but repeated incidents, the tools testing the political waters, might dent the hopes that ‘democracy’ evokes.

The verdicts of the Election Tribunal against the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N), while making the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) jubilate, has caused a stir in the PML-N’s domination of Punjab. Accountability issues have surfaced especially in the power sector. Not forgetting, that the power sector’s revitalization was the focal point on which the 2013 elections were based. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have failed; reflecting health and education as key causes of concern. Rational or not is another question but the traders, farmers, industrialists and the dairy sector have all stood up in reaction to the government enacted policies. Amidst the air of melancholia that looms large over the Government, all factors point towards a single structural entity: governance.

Governance has come about as a perennial issue in the political climate of Pakistan. As history clearly embarks upon the depressed timeline that Pakistan has encountered, it presents lessons to be learnt, followed and duly implemented. Governance has served as the vital ‘missing structure’ giving room to the military to leverage the political differences. The gap that the bad governance formed between the people and the politicos, at some points in Pakistan’s history, served as the tool for khakis’ rule. Efficiency, effectiveness, participation, ownership and accountability are the mechanisms that lay out good governance. All these variables are dependent upon the population census which is astoundingly missing. In 1998, the same government, under Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, carried out this task. News circulates regarding the constitutional duty being on government’s agenda once again but obligations more important in their nature are causing lags. It is realized that developmental projects at the local and national levels tend to remain undefined until the population density is known.

Discriminatory development has been defined as more harmful than non-development by economists. Sustainable development has long been knocking at the doors of the policy makers and the challenge should have been taken up. The mystical charm that the PPP had on its followers seems to be dying. This is the right time for the PML-N to solidify its popularity with its policies gearing good and effective governance. Although it has tried with its power generation ventures, communication network progression, transport up-gradation and economic revival, a lot is still to be done.

PML-N has strived hard to make power generation a core prerogative of the current government. In its endeavor to give an immediate relief to its vital supporters, the industrialists, the government suffered a set-back. It revealed its hastiness through the 425 Mega Watt (MW) Nandipur Power Project. Lacking the capacity to perform, the project could not justify its towering bills. Through the media accountability, this project catalyzed the belief in incompetence and possible chances of corruption. To counter the blame, the Punjab Chief Minister, instead of the Federal Minister for Power, came out strongly in defense of the project. Sanity suggests that this clarification might have weakened the standing of the government. Administration in-charge should have clarified the effectiveness, generating confidence among the people and the politicos themselves. Undoubtedly, the project languished due to failings of the previous government but this should have led the present government to focus on it. The Prime Minister has himself ordered two separate inquires in this case and has promised to set an example.

The government is trying hard to make the Quaid-e-Azam solar power plant, which is intended to be the world’s largest such venture, a success story. Reservations are gaining popularity in the case of the site, maintenance and operational framework that has been chalked out. It will not be wrong to say that this has cast a shadow on the future predictions for power generation. As a result of unpredictability, the Gadani Power Project has been reversed due to the increased fears of becoming a failure. It suggests that serious and effective feasibilities need to be prepared. The government will in no case be ready to spoil the high confidence, 66% according to PILDAT, of the people in the democracy.

The dangerous dengue spray issue that came up recently needs a pragmatic response. The Punjab Chief Minister acted promptly but an investigation will uncover the real lapses. If seen through the lens of the local government and the by-elections, the PML-N dominates highly. Also, the blanket protection from the strong vision of General Raheel has aided the Prime Minister in gaining importance and holistic support. However, the role of the government is also undeniable in pursuing policies that solidify the nation.

Ashamedly, the Global Nutrition Report 2015 highlighted that Pakistan has more than half of its children under the age of five with stunted or wasted growth. This is a cause of concern and the government needs to be attentive on these core issues. Sadly, Pakistan also falls in the list of 20 countries that have met only 20% of its World Health Assembly targets. It may undermine the reputation that the PML-N had long established in terms of its policy for economic upheaval. The government should focus on its vision that it presented in its manifesto. Their strategies need to represent a clear-cut aim vis-a-vis their government. As an effort, the government increased the national budget for education in the 2015 budget but that of the health remained almost untouched.

The Tax to GDP ratio remains low. To counter this, methods for multiplicative taxation, as recommended by the IMF, have been adopted. The traders and the business forums have heralded numerous drives of agitation but the government remains adamant. This is an initiative that was immensely appreciated as traders form a huge support for the PML-N. Its effort to bring the citizens in the tax net will indeed prove fruitful for the economy. However, as a feature of good governance, the government needed to consult with the functioning bodies before the application of the tax. It has also been noted the government, till now, has been helped by the favorable slump in the oil prices and realization of the IMF policies. On the other hand, the CPEC mission, with the vision of “One belt, One road”, is a strong initiative that received global recognition. The betterment in the macroeconomic indicators also serves as an evidence of the reforms of the government. However, the administration needs to understand that the micro events are also an integral part of the macro phenomena.

On the civil military front, both the institutions are on the same page and look strong to eliminate and shun all negative forces working against Pakistan. The nation is already experiencing their cumulative effect and has wiped off the vision that portrayed politicians enjoying a perpetual picnic. Also, the government has recently announced a package for Balochistan as well as the deprived and agitating farmer community. As Merik Grindle says, the government need not mystify good governance with democracy. It needs to truncate the issues by prioritizing them. If the main concerns are legitimately addressed, the vision of Forbes presenting Pakistan as a global turnaround story does not seem far away. The policy frame-work needs to portray Pakistan as a developmental state, endeavoring to include itself in the G-20 list soon.

While terrorism and natural calamities have hit Pakistan badly, the cohesion among its population serves as a real force. John Maynard Keynes once said in reference to Great Britain, “We are a poor nation and we must learn to live accordingly.” Not shattering the brilliant reputation that Pakistan has developed due to its recent projects, the people and the government need to understand this. Mired in poverty and backwardness, until and unless we take up pragmatism or make efficient uses of our natural and human resources, Pakistan’s turnaround story might remain a fragile dream. Governance indicators suggest that deep structural changes are needed to unleash the growth potential. Constitutional supremacy needs to be adopted amidst the logjams that have substantiated the course of development. It is clear that internal and external security threats have undermined Pakistan’s economic edge but if the right mechanism for governance is adopted, there is much reason and hope that Pakistan can soon see itself catapulted from a developing state to a developed nation.

A SAD SPECTACLE

Much is being read into the recent so called ‘macho’ speech of the Co Chairman of the PPP. Some analysts are calling it some kind of a gauntlet thrown at the ‘establishment’ which they think and hope will be picked up so that fireworks can start. The media loves fireworks because it rakes in the moolah and these days that is the most important consideration. More experienced and savvy people know that the outburst by the Co Chairman was neither a speech nor a gauntlet — it was a sad and pathetic spectacle. It was the response much like the one a cornered rat makes as a last ditch effort to evade a fate that looks inevitable.

  

The Co Chairman forgot that for five long years he was the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the Supreme Commander of Pakistan’s Armed Forces. You do not get to go any higher except when called to the eternal abode. For such an eminence to threaten the land that honored him with an end to end shut down that would only end on his say is the mother of all betrayals. To threaten the forces he commanded with public exposure to disgrace them is the mother of all come downs because it lowers one to the level of a blackmailer. Above all such a tirade is a tacit public admission that the Rangers’ operation in Karachi led by a no-nonsense soldier is dead on target and that the target feels the noose tightening and hurting.

Those expecting a response or a flurry of action are in for a surprise. The military will not stoop to pick up the gauntlet because there is no gauntlet to be picked up. The thought about three year military tenures in the top slot as opposed to the ‘permanence’ of the politician is a fallacy and those sitting around the speech-making table knew that. The petrified look on the face of the other Co Chairman under his warrior type turban and the frozen smile on the face of the lady who loves goggles gave away their true feelings as they heard their leader rant and rave. Altaf Bhai now has a rival. What was forgotten was the continuity in the military institution because it is an institution in the true strength of the word with enormous organizational and structural strength and a memory that would put an elephant to shame — so tenures and individuals are not important, the institution is. And above all the military is an institution of Pakistan that for the last seven years has been functioning under and in support of the elected governments. Right now it is fighting to give human and physical security in Pakistan and is unhesitatingly making supreme sacrifices. What is critical is the present and not the past in which the Co Chairman wants to wallow to dredge up failures and lapses.

If the Co Chairman was expecting political forces to rally around him and his party he must be disappointed. The political institution is not known for siding with losers or those about to lose. In fact that is the time the rivals go for the jugular. The PML(N) has wisely distanced itself by words and action. The others have taken the opportunity to condemn and point out the gross misgovernance and neglect that characterizes the government in Sind besides other unsavory doings. The Co Chairman has given the governing party a boost that they would be fools not to exploit. People are talking of their achievements — the decision on Yemen, the CPEC game changer, the improved relationship with the US, local government polls, the cooperative relationship with Afghanistan, the good civil-military interaction and the coming national census next year. The ‘speech’ was ill timed and has highlighted the fall of the PPP — another reminder that democracy works. Right now the military has the entire nation behind it as was evident from the reaction to the barbs from India and the military is being seen as a savior not just on the borders but deep within the country as its forces and intelligence assets not only combat threats but build capacity in civilian institutions to take on future threats. They are in no mood to waste time on mythical gauntlets and other distractions focusing on the past. As far as the advice being given to them by all and sundry — they will do what they think needs to be done and in a time frame that they think is appropriate — not under pressure from analysts and discussants.

Wake Up, Pakistan

Thomas R. Pickering
Working Group Chair
The Century Foundation Press • New York

The Report of The Century Foundation International Working Group on Pakistan

The time is long past for Pakistan to wake up to its present predicament and begin a serious reassessment of the fundamental policy challenges it faces. Decades of mistakes and misperceptions have compounded pernicious ideological choices to present Pakistani society with a series of ongoing crises it must address before its basic resilience is overwhelmed: a public sphere dominated by extremists, a crippled economy debilitated by corruption, and a deteriorating regional position. The Century Foundation International Working Group on Pakistan, comprised of a broad and diverse assemblage of American, Pakistani and international figures deeply concerned about the country’s future, believes it is time for Pakistan to address these problems vigorously and comprehensively, and for its international partners to assist where they can.

Read full report: Wake Up, Pakistan