Lately, the whispers of military intervention or backing of the ‘revolutionaries’ have been toned down. Is this toning down attributable to the political developments elsewhere such as Imran Khan’s extension of his ‘revolution’ to other parts of the country or is it the incessant clarifications protruding out from the ISPR? It’s a bit of both and some other factors, of course.
A major factor discouraging the military’s attempts to mould politics, such as was the case in the past, is the removal of Article 58(2)(b) from the Constitution, as a result of the Eighteenth Amendment. This clause was used by the President in the past, allegedly at the behest of the security establishment, to dismiss prime ministers in the 90’s. This was simply because this very clause allowed the President to do so. After the doing away of this article, it will be a tad bit difficult for the military to grasp a legal cover for intervening in the country’s politics.
Yes, one can intervene in the country’s politics without directly ousting the government. This is the soft coup phenomenon or what has been referred to as the ‘Kayani doctrine’ or ‘A coup without a coup’. If only such creative thinking had been applied to better understand the socio-political dynamics that have been acting against the military’s foray into politics rather than coming up with abstract themes, we might have had a better understanding of the current political impasse. Yet, no one can deny the rationale for historical paranoia accumulating in societies that have lived under long periods of military rule.
One must not deny that the military too is suffering from this historical baggage. It is ever-prevalent in the development of the state as well as its relationships with other states and the international community at large. The military being a part of the state necessarily carries this baggage as well. It is this very baggage that is making its public relations arm, i.e., the Inter-Services Public Relations, ever-attentive at dispelling any rumors about the military’s intervention in politics. It is this baggage that has made large parts of the armed forces realize that the asymmetry between Pakistan and India on the economic, political and diplomatic front cannot be balanced until Pakistan’s nascent democratic institutions are allowed to develop. These remain ever-so important for the military because a large part of its threat perception, fortunately or unfortunately, still has roots in India.
Why be at the helm of affairs when the country is literally ‘flooded’ in areas that form its agricultural bread basket? Where sectarian and targeted killings are taking human toll every other day or week? When the Islamic State, based in Syria and Iraq, is striving to spread its tentacles to Pakistan? This ‘historical baggage’ may have made the current leadership of the military throw its weight behind the civilian government.
Nevertheless, history may have other phenomenon as an offering as well. Throughout Punjab’s history, its Muslim inhabitants pragmatically strived for survival first rather than power or grandeur. No one exemplifies this best other than the figure of Adina Beg Khan. For the Pakistan Army, which draws a large part of its personnel from the same demographic, pragmatism may as well dictate survival in the form of maintaining the current constitutional formulation.
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