Pakistan has been abuzz with speculations regarding a military takeover amidst the current political deadlock, spanning over more than a month now. Recently, a well renowned news channel reported Army Chief’s advice to the PM to resign, while on the same day, another news channel claimed that government is likely to ask the COAS to resign, both denied by officials later. The revelations by Javed Hashmi, shedding light on the alleged role of former army officials in the prevailing crisis only added to the various discussions in media circles about covert support of a script writer/ third umpire for the two protesting parties.
To be fair, this profound paranoia concerning military intervention has legitimate roots in the history, starting from the first military takeover in 1958 followed by three successful coups. This fear of coup is deeply entrenched not only within the government entities but also the general public, all of whom have witnessed at least one military takeover in their lives.
However, this time around military as an institution has evolved like other key institutions of the state and these speculations seem a bit overstretched. As Talat Masood writes in his article: “The military today like other institutions in the country is clearly in a state of transition and to expect that it would replicate its past political interventions of the late 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s would be misreading the situation.” The numerous statements by DG ISPR categorically denying such speculations and upholding army’s loyalty to the supremacy of the constitution clearly point towards the army’s relatively newfound apolitical approach. Many would agree that it is rather the incompetence of the elected government to handle the situation and inflexibility on PTI’s part which created a vacuum, paving way for greater political space for the military as a ‘mediator’.
To put matters into perspective directly, army has a lot on its plate right now with an ongoing operation at western front and border skirmishes with India. It is also leading the relief efforts for flood victims and internally displaced persons. Under these circumstances, it not only needs a political government to own the armed offensive in North Waziristan but to back these efforts by the military. Hence, overthrowing the current government is not a suitable option for them.
The military also understands the changing dynamics of South Asia with India progressing at all fronts; economic deal with China and India’s heavy record high donation in Afghanistan whereas Pakistan is lagging behind in all aspects. Furthermore, during and post US withdrawal, the role of Pakistan along with India will be of critical importance. A destabilized government especially considering the asymmetry with India will neither go in favor of the country nor the military.
There is a possibility of some element of truth to the allegations put forth by Javed Hashmi regarding the involvement of retired officers; however it needs to be investigated. It should be duly noted that the role and scope of other state institutions have also changed with time. While the pervious military coups were legalized by the Judiciary which not only facilitated General Pervaiz Musharraf by giving him a three year mandate and powers to amend the Constitution, the current judicial system is considered far more apolitical and independent. Similarly, unlike in the past where opposition parties made alliances to overthrow the government- PNA movement being prime example, the parliament this time has emerged as a strong democratic block with all elected parties on the same page except PTI.
With regards to civil-military relations, the government needs to understand that army has a viewpoint on defence and security of the country and rightly so. Instead of focusing on past confrontations, the government should work with the military in greater capacity and address their legitimate concerns. The need of the hour is to focus on a greater institutional accord for an internally stable Pakistan; military coup is certainly not an option.
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