Pak – India: Playing with Fire

TACSTRAT ANALYSIS

For the past couple of months, both India and Pakistan have been engaged in low level shelling on each other’s positions across the Line of Control that bifurcates the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In recent weeks, we have witnessed a considerable rise in violence. Both the sides continue to blame the other for triggering violence and mutual threats suited to a war setting have followed ever since. In a welcome step, the chiefs of the Indian Border Security Force and its counterpart, the Pakistan Rangers, met in New Delhi over three days and from the outlook the talks seemed productive. This came after the calling off of NSA-level talks between the two neighbors, which had originally been agreed to by the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers on the sidelines of the SCO summit in UFA earlier in July, when they agreed to revive the dialogue process which has stuttered to a halt.

While such low intensity exchanges on the LoC have been witnessed in the past and the two sides have succeeded in keeping them localized affairs, the present situation is far more dangerous because many experts believe that this could be part of a larger strategic tussle about the nature of bilateral engagement. Pakistan is of the view that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is attempting to fundamentally and permanently alter the rules of engagement of the bilateral relationship by taking Kashmir off the negotiating table. While Pakistan previously adopted the policy of ‘Kashmir first’, Modi now seems to be shifting towards the other extreme of a ‘terrorism first’ approach. This is precisely what led to the NSA-talks being cancelled as Pakistan responded to Modi’s strategy by hyping up the Kashmir issue by inviting the Hurriyat leaders to meet its visiting national security adviser in Delhi—an accepted routine in the past.

Moeed Yusuf, a security expert, explains in his recent article that this hold up is a cause of concern. Apart from the obvious risks of escalation in a nuclearised environment, tensions at this stage will have direct consequences on the stability of the region. With the Pakistan army engaged in its most expansive counterterrorism operation on multiple fronts, any distraction on its eastern border will give the TTP and its affiliated al-Qaeda presence breathing space to rejuvenate its operations. This would be playing into the hands of al-Qaeda once again, as they previously took advantage of the tense situation that ensued between the neighbors after the 26/11 attacks. In an effort to push Modi to leave the rules of bilateral engagement untouched, Pakistan has raised the profile of recent LoC incidents. Modi is thus far unmoved since India continues to ride the international wave of support owing to its economic importance, and also the fact that the international community is more likely to consider terrorism as the more pressing concern compared the issue of Kashmir.

Many are also of the view that India could be looking to take advantage of the fact that the Pakistani army has been stretched throughout the country. This imbalance of our forces on two fronts, has encouraged India to test our nerves, by consistent violation of the Line of Control (LOC), and may well venture across the LOC to escalate the situation, India may also try to provoke Pakistan, violating Afghan borders, because it has considerable influence over there and their agents are fairly active on both sides of the border. Keeping such theories aside, both the sides need to take into consideration the delicate situation that exists in the region as a whole before they allow this crisis to escalate any further. Such petty tactical or strategic ploys cannot be played out in isolation without having a significant bearing on the already precarious situation in the region. India also needs to realize that it also has a stake in the war Pakistan is currently embroiled in. Rather than hyping up trivial issues and using the media as a tool to add to the already toxic atmosphere, it needs to look at the larger picture. Perhaps the Indian security administration has forgotten that the TTP is just a cog in the larger machine of al-Qaeda that serves the purpose of wreaking havoc in Pakistan as a reaction to its alliance with US on the war on terror. Al-Qaeda for years has been planning on making in-roads into India as it looks to expand its war-base in line with their ideology inspired by Syed Qutb. Therefore, instead of playing with fire, it is imperative that the two neighbors deal with the current situation in a more circumspect manner.

Good Governance; Fortifying Pakistan’s Turnaround Story

ZoneAsia-Pk

The Government of Pakistan has, till now, remained politically savvy. It has however now been tested with the present bout of tensions that have come forth in a rush. This is not the first time that the political leadership has come under the spotlight but repeated incidents, the tools testing the political waters, might dent the hopes that ‘democracy’ evokes.

The verdicts of the Election Tribunal against the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N), while making the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) jubilate, has caused a stir in the PML-N’s domination of Punjab. Accountability issues have surfaced especially in the power sector. Not forgetting, that the power sector’s revitalization was the focal point on which the 2013 elections were based. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have failed; reflecting health and education as key causes of concern. Rational or not is another question but the traders, farmers, industrialists and the dairy sector have all stood up in reaction to the government enacted policies. Amidst the air of melancholia that looms large over the Government, all factors point towards a single structural entity: governance.

Governance has come about as a perennial issue in the political climate of Pakistan. As history clearly embarks upon the depressed timeline that Pakistan has encountered, it presents lessons to be learnt, followed and duly implemented. Governance has served as the vital ‘missing structure’ giving room to the military to leverage the political differences. The gap that the bad governance formed between the people and the politicos, at some points in Pakistan’s history, served as the tool for khakis’ rule. Efficiency, effectiveness, participation, ownership and accountability are the mechanisms that lay out good governance. All these variables are dependent upon the population census which is astoundingly missing. In 1998, the same government, under Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, carried out this task. News circulates regarding the constitutional duty being on government’s agenda once again but obligations more important in their nature are causing lags. It is realized that developmental projects at the local and national levels tend to remain undefined until the population density is known.

Discriminatory development has been defined as more harmful than non-development by economists. Sustainable development has long been knocking at the doors of the policy makers and the challenge should have been taken up. The mystical charm that the PPP had on its followers seems to be dying. This is the right time for the PML-N to solidify its popularity with its policies gearing good and effective governance. Although it has tried with its power generation ventures, communication network progression, transport up-gradation and economic revival, a lot is still to be done.

PML-N has strived hard to make power generation a core prerogative of the current government. In its endeavor to give an immediate relief to its vital supporters, the industrialists, the government suffered a set-back. It revealed its hastiness through the 425 Mega Watt (MW) Nandipur Power Project. Lacking the capacity to perform, the project could not justify its towering bills. Through the media accountability, this project catalyzed the belief in incompetence and possible chances of corruption. To counter the blame, the Punjab Chief Minister, instead of the Federal Minister for Power, came out strongly in defense of the project. Sanity suggests that this clarification might have weakened the standing of the government. Administration in-charge should have clarified the effectiveness, generating confidence among the people and the politicos themselves. Undoubtedly, the project languished due to failings of the previous government but this should have led the present government to focus on it. The Prime Minister has himself ordered two separate inquires in this case and has promised to set an example.

The government is trying hard to make the Quaid-e-Azam solar power plant, which is intended to be the world’s largest such venture, a success story. Reservations are gaining popularity in the case of the site, maintenance and operational framework that has been chalked out. It will not be wrong to say that this has cast a shadow on the future predictions for power generation. As a result of unpredictability, the Gadani Power Project has been reversed due to the increased fears of becoming a failure. It suggests that serious and effective feasibilities need to be prepared. The government will in no case be ready to spoil the high confidence, 66% according to PILDAT, of the people in the democracy.

The dangerous dengue spray issue that came up recently needs a pragmatic response. The Punjab Chief Minister acted promptly but an investigation will uncover the real lapses. If seen through the lens of the local government and the by-elections, the PML-N dominates highly. Also, the blanket protection from the strong vision of General Raheel has aided the Prime Minister in gaining importance and holistic support. However, the role of the government is also undeniable in pursuing policies that solidify the nation.

Ashamedly, the Global Nutrition Report 2015 highlighted that Pakistan has more than half of its children under the age of five with stunted or wasted growth. This is a cause of concern and the government needs to be attentive on these core issues. Sadly, Pakistan also falls in the list of 20 countries that have met only 20% of its World Health Assembly targets. It may undermine the reputation that the PML-N had long established in terms of its policy for economic upheaval. The government should focus on its vision that it presented in its manifesto. Their strategies need to represent a clear-cut aim vis-a-vis their government. As an effort, the government increased the national budget for education in the 2015 budget but that of the health remained almost untouched.

The Tax to GDP ratio remains low. To counter this, methods for multiplicative taxation, as recommended by the IMF, have been adopted. The traders and the business forums have heralded numerous drives of agitation but the government remains adamant. This is an initiative that was immensely appreciated as traders form a huge support for the PML-N. Its effort to bring the citizens in the tax net will indeed prove fruitful for the economy. However, as a feature of good governance, the government needed to consult with the functioning bodies before the application of the tax. It has also been noted the government, till now, has been helped by the favorable slump in the oil prices and realization of the IMF policies. On the other hand, the CPEC mission, with the vision of “One belt, One road”, is a strong initiative that received global recognition. The betterment in the macroeconomic indicators also serves as an evidence of the reforms of the government. However, the administration needs to understand that the micro events are also an integral part of the macro phenomena.

On the civil military front, both the institutions are on the same page and look strong to eliminate and shun all negative forces working against Pakistan. The nation is already experiencing their cumulative effect and has wiped off the vision that portrayed politicians enjoying a perpetual picnic. Also, the government has recently announced a package for Balochistan as well as the deprived and agitating farmer community. As Merik Grindle says, the government need not mystify good governance with democracy. It needs to truncate the issues by prioritizing them. If the main concerns are legitimately addressed, the vision of Forbes presenting Pakistan as a global turnaround story does not seem far away. The policy frame-work needs to portray Pakistan as a developmental state, endeavoring to include itself in the G-20 list soon.

While terrorism and natural calamities have hit Pakistan badly, the cohesion among its population serves as a real force. John Maynard Keynes once said in reference to Great Britain, “We are a poor nation and we must learn to live accordingly.” Not shattering the brilliant reputation that Pakistan has developed due to its recent projects, the people and the government need to understand this. Mired in poverty and backwardness, until and unless we take up pragmatism or make efficient uses of our natural and human resources, Pakistan’s turnaround story might remain a fragile dream. Governance indicators suggest that deep structural changes are needed to unleash the growth potential. Constitutional supremacy needs to be adopted amidst the logjams that have substantiated the course of development. It is clear that internal and external security threats have undermined Pakistan’s economic edge but if the right mechanism for governance is adopted, there is much reason and hope that Pakistan can soon see itself catapulted from a developing state to a developed nation.

A SAD SPECTACLE

Much is being read into the recent so called ‘macho’ speech of the Co Chairman of the PPP. Some analysts are calling it some kind of a gauntlet thrown at the ‘establishment’ which they think and hope will be picked up so that fireworks can start. The media loves fireworks because it rakes in the moolah and these days that is the most important consideration. More experienced and savvy people know that the outburst by the Co Chairman was neither a speech nor a gauntlet — it was a sad and pathetic spectacle. It was the response much like the one a cornered rat makes as a last ditch effort to evade a fate that looks inevitable.

  

The Co Chairman forgot that for five long years he was the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the Supreme Commander of Pakistan’s Armed Forces. You do not get to go any higher except when called to the eternal abode. For such an eminence to threaten the land that honored him with an end to end shut down that would only end on his say is the mother of all betrayals. To threaten the forces he commanded with public exposure to disgrace them is the mother of all come downs because it lowers one to the level of a blackmailer. Above all such a tirade is a tacit public admission that the Rangers’ operation in Karachi led by a no-nonsense soldier is dead on target and that the target feels the noose tightening and hurting.

Those expecting a response or a flurry of action are in for a surprise. The military will not stoop to pick up the gauntlet because there is no gauntlet to be picked up. The thought about three year military tenures in the top slot as opposed to the ‘permanence’ of the politician is a fallacy and those sitting around the speech-making table knew that. The petrified look on the face of the other Co Chairman under his warrior type turban and the frozen smile on the face of the lady who loves goggles gave away their true feelings as they heard their leader rant and rave. Altaf Bhai now has a rival. What was forgotten was the continuity in the military institution because it is an institution in the true strength of the word with enormous organizational and structural strength and a memory that would put an elephant to shame — so tenures and individuals are not important, the institution is. And above all the military is an institution of Pakistan that for the last seven years has been functioning under and in support of the elected governments. Right now it is fighting to give human and physical security in Pakistan and is unhesitatingly making supreme sacrifices. What is critical is the present and not the past in which the Co Chairman wants to wallow to dredge up failures and lapses.

If the Co Chairman was expecting political forces to rally around him and his party he must be disappointed. The political institution is not known for siding with losers or those about to lose. In fact that is the time the rivals go for the jugular. The PML(N) has wisely distanced itself by words and action. The others have taken the opportunity to condemn and point out the gross misgovernance and neglect that characterizes the government in Sind besides other unsavory doings. The Co Chairman has given the governing party a boost that they would be fools not to exploit. People are talking of their achievements — the decision on Yemen, the CPEC game changer, the improved relationship with the US, local government polls, the cooperative relationship with Afghanistan, the good civil-military interaction and the coming national census next year. The ‘speech’ was ill timed and has highlighted the fall of the PPP — another reminder that democracy works. Right now the military has the entire nation behind it as was evident from the reaction to the barbs from India and the military is being seen as a savior not just on the borders but deep within the country as its forces and intelligence assets not only combat threats but build capacity in civilian institutions to take on future threats. They are in no mood to waste time on mythical gauntlets and other distractions focusing on the past. As far as the advice being given to them by all and sundry — they will do what they think needs to be done and in a time frame that they think is appropriate — not under pressure from analysts and discussants.

Wake Up, Pakistan

Thomas R. Pickering
Working Group Chair
The Century Foundation Press • New York

The Report of The Century Foundation International Working Group on Pakistan

The time is long past for Pakistan to wake up to its present predicament and begin a serious reassessment of the fundamental policy challenges it faces. Decades of mistakes and misperceptions have compounded pernicious ideological choices to present Pakistani society with a series of ongoing crises it must address before its basic resilience is overwhelmed: a public sphere dominated by extremists, a crippled economy debilitated by corruption, and a deteriorating regional position. The Century Foundation International Working Group on Pakistan, comprised of a broad and diverse assemblage of American, Pakistani and international figures deeply concerned about the country’s future, believes it is time for Pakistan to address these problems vigorously and comprehensively, and for its international partners to assist where they can.

Read full report: Wake Up, Pakistan

Fair’s unfair affair with Pakistan

ZONEASIA-PK

Christine Fair’s most recent article (tirade) — ‘America’s Pakistan Policy is Sheer Madness’ is a true masterpiece of distortion and opinionated utterances. She calls members of the US Congress, White House, Departments of Defense and State pusillanimous besides faulting them for not just a flawed policy but a policy that harms US interests. Strong words from a lady who is now accepted as a major part of the anti Pakistan landscape and no doubt there is a good reason for what she has become — a bitter scorned woman who must claw, rip, smear and malign to vent her frustrations. In one of her face book postings she compared a Pakistani medium range missile to a ’Chihuawa’s penis’ — perhaps a psychiatrist needs to analyze and get to the bottom of her disturbed mind and vengeful anger.

As to the muddled arguments she puts forth the less said the better. She asks the US to forge a new policy for Pakistan. This is exactly what the US has done on the basis of past experience and in the US’ best interests. Today the US and Pakistan have a convergence of interests over a range of issues including Afghanistan. The result is a serious move towards Pakistan-Afghanistan cooperation against the common threat of the Taliban operating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The past policies that she alludes to and in fact bases her arguments on are just that — past policies no longer relevant. Why were they there in the first place? They were there because of the uncertainty in US/NATO presence in Afghanistan and an ambiguous attitude towards the Taliban (Taleban). Once the uncertainty went away under Obama Pakistan policy crystallized and after President Ashraf Ghani came in this policy is being implemented. This policy best serves the interests of the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan and the region if not the world. So why go back into the past just bring down your own policy makers. If a new policy is needed then it should be one that extends greater support to Pakistan.

Ms Fair is critical of the arms given and sold to Pakistan and the funds released to Pakistan under various heads. She takes her figures from the Congressional Research paper. The figures are no doubt accurate and impressive when yo add them up but not so impressive when you look at the time span they cover and factor in the three decades of violence in Pakistan’s western neighborhood. These are a fraction of what Pakistan required. Also missing in the tally of human losses is the number of Afghans and Pakistanis killed and the atrocities committed on them. These need to be factored in. Consider also the NATO logistics that moved across Pakistan. Compute the tonnages and the damage to the infra structure.

Ms Fair has mentioned Osama bi Laden. Yes there are questions that a inquiry commission has no doubt answered but it has not been made public. Pakistan will decide what is best in its own interest. Ms Fair might want to investigate how 19 Arabs could live, travel, train over months and possibly years in the US till they hijacked three passenger planes and blew up the World Tower and the Pentagon without anybody knowing anything at all.

There are many madnesses going around. The Shia-Sunni conflict in the Middle East. Its origin bears investigation. The rise of radicalization and extremism also bears investigation. Pakistan is doing its best to ward off these dangers to the fabric of its society and it has to modulate its policy not to satisfy a frustrated female but to ensure its own interests and it is well aware of those. Pakistan is a victim of  and not a perpetrator.

India and Pakistan are fully aware of the danger that a war would create. There are no signs of any such conflict except in fevered imaginations. Pakistan is fully aware of the asymmetry in conventional power and so is the US. This asymmetry rules out any adventure or irresponsible action by Pakistan but Pakistan will never allow this asymmetry to reach a stage where one side can dictate. Pakistan’s policy is one of deterrence and good relations with all its neighbors. The Us understands this and does not need to be given tutorials.

Fair’s unfair affair with Pakistan

ZONEASIA-PK

Christine Fair’s most recent article (tirade) — ‘America’s Pakistan Policy is Sheer Madness’ is a true masterpiece of distortion and opinionated utterances. She calls members of the US Congress, White House, Departments of Defense and State pusillanimous besides faulting them for not just a flawed policy but a policy that harms US interests. Strong words from a lady who is now accepted as a major part of the anti Pakistan landscape and no doubt there is a good reason for what she has become — a bitter scorned woman who must claw, rip, smear and malign to vent her frustrations. In one of her face book postings she compared a Pakistani medium range missile to a ’Chihuawa’s penis’ — perhaps a psychiatrist needs to analyze and get to the bottom of her disturbed mind and vengeful anger.

As to the muddled arguments she puts forth the less said the better. She asks the US to forge a new policy for Pakistan. This is exactly what the US has done on the basis of past experience and in the US’ best interests. Today the US and Pakistan have a convergence of interests over a range of issues including Afghanistan. The result is a serious move towards Pakistan-Afghanistan cooperation against the common threat of the Taliban operating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The past policies that she alludes to and in fact bases her arguments on are just that — past policies no longer relevant. Why were they there in the first place? They were there because of the uncertainty in US/NATO presence in Afghanistan and an ambiguous attitude towards the Taliban (Taleban). Once the uncertainty went away under Obama Pakistan policy crystallized and after President Ashraf Ghani came in this policy is being implemented. This policy best serves the interests of the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan and the region if not the world. So why go back into the past just bring down your own policy makers. If a new policy is needed then it should be one that extends greater support to Pakistan.

Ms Fair is critical of the arms given and sold to Pakistan and the funds released to Pakistan under various heads. She takes her figures from the Congressional Research paper. The figures are no doubt accurate and impressive when yo add them up but not so impressive when you look at the time span they cover and factor in the three decades of violence in Pakistan’s western neighborhood. These are a fraction of what Pakistan required. Also missing in the tally of human losses is the number of Afghans and Pakistanis killed and the atrocities committed on them. These need to be factored in. Consider also the NATO logistics that moved across Pakistan. Compute the tonnages and the damage to the infra structure.

Ms Fair has mentioned Osama bi Laden. Yes there are questions that a inquiry commission has no doubt answered but it has not been made public. Pakistan will decide what is best in its own interest. Ms Fair might want to investigate how 19 Arabs could live, travel, train over months and possibly years in the US till they hijacked three passenger planes and blew up the World Tower and the Pentagon without anybody knowing anything at all.

There are many madnesses going around. The Shia-Sunni conflict in the Middle East. Its origin bears investigation. The rise of radicalization and extremism also bears investigation. Pakistan is doing its best to ward off these dangers to the fabric of its society and it has to modulate its policy not to satisfy a frustrated female but to ensure its own interests and it is well aware of those. Pakistan is a victim of  and not a perpetrator.

India and Pakistan are fully aware of the danger that a war would create. There are no signs of any such conflict except in fevered imaginations. Pakistan is fully aware of the asymmetry in conventional power and so is the US. This asymmetry rules out any adventure or irresponsible action by Pakistan but Pakistan will never allow this asymmetry to reach a stage where one side can dictate. Pakistan’s policy is one of deterrence and good relations with all its neighbors. The Us understands this and does not need to be given tutorials.

Dissecting Husain Haqqani’s “Lowering Expectations for China's Pakistan Push”

By Fatima Rizvi

Mr Husain Haqqani has once again targeted Pakistan. This time it was an extremely failed attempt at highlighting some “facts” why Pakistan – China alliance and Chinese investment in Pakistan is doomed to fail!

The U.S. has shown little apprehension over China taking the lead in helping Pakistan build critical infrastructure.

Mr Husain Haqqani must realize that the US is not in a position to show any apprehensions after suffering multiple wars in the region. Losses in terms of human lives and trillions of dollars (US tax payers money) have wasted on a pointless war where USA has failed to achieve any of their goals or objectives (If they had any in the first place). China on the other hand, unlike USA, has absolutely no desire to take over and control any foreign country. China seeks its own interests in terms of economic and strategic gains without directly threatening or violating any sovereign state. This is a major difference between US and Chinese policies. Mr Haqqani seems to be toeing an old and outdated line which has lost its attraction and fails to create an impact.

The U.S. cannot inject billions of dollars into Pakistan, a difficult ally at the best of times.

US can definitely not inject billions of dollars into Pakistan indeed! Now that USA has admitted its defeat in Afghanistan and is at the moment on a retreat trying to find an honorable exit from the region, USA will definitely not want to invest any more in Pakistan, an ally that was forced to join USA war against a sovereign neighbor state. USA does not want long term relations with any country (including India). For USA all allies are dispensable once they have been used and abused. China on the other hand has stood by Pakistan whenever there has been need for cooperation. Mr Haqqani needs to get is facts right (that is if he wants to give the right facts to the world). What he has been writing seems like a low level and low quality propaganda against Pakistan to please the obvious entities who are his pay masters!

From Washington’s perspective, it makes sense to let China help stabilize Pakistan’s economy.

From everyone’s perspective it makes sense to stabilize Pakistan’s economy which has been extensively damaged by the two US wars in Afghanistan. Both the times USA forced Pakistan to join the wars, provide logistical support and trained mercenaries. USA encouraged drug and weapons culture in Pakistan during the 1980’s and promoted “madrasas” for recruiting Mujahideen to fight the soviets. At that time there was no issue with religious militancy because it was directed towards their cold war ear enemy, the Soviets. Pakistan has been supporting millions of Afghan refugees from the first US – Soviet Afghan war. How USA’s CIA utilized millions of dollars to buy support of Afghan warlords and at the same time looked away when these “funds” were misused by the Pakistani leadership also says something about US intentions and priorities. Mr Haqqani, if he was not completely sold out “scholar”, could have mentioned such facts in at least one of his many written master pieces! Pakistan’s economy suffered another blow after 9/11 when Mr Bush called the then Pakistan military dictator and “told” him to join the war against the Taliban. Instead of following the international laws USA decided to bypass and violate all laws and attack a recognized sovereign state. USA supported this military regime while it served their purposes and restoration of democracy was never issue. USA may have given few billion dollars to Pakistan during these “wars against terrorism” but the damage USA has done to Pakistan’s economy, society and national institutions is so great that even trillions of dollars would not be enough to fix it. Thousands of Pakistanis (civilians and military) have lost their lives because of US policies in this region.

The Obama administration would also like China to induce Pakistan to abandon its role as a terrorist safe haven.

Now Mr Husain Haqqani really shouldn’t talk about terrorists and their supporter and their creators. USA is the only country in the world which is responsible for 99% of all global terrorism. Because of USA’s violation of international laws and abuse of human rights, terrorism has expanded to a global scale. USA has drawn in countries which had no issues with the Muslim world or Islam. USA created the Islamophobia by giving terrorism a religion. Before this a terrorist was a terrorist and no religious community was ready to support or own them. Today “with the grace of USA” terrorism is synonymous with Islam. All Muslims are terrorists unless they are ready to serve USA (Congratulations Mr Husain Haqqani you are not on US terror list). Pakistan was left to deal with all the surplus Mujahideen crops which the CIA sowed in Pakistan for the first Afghan war. Once the war was over Pakistan had to deal with these highly trained fighters without jobs. There were no more US funds to keep paying these brainwashed holy warriors of the Ronald Regan era. So what USA should have done was taken all these recruits to USA with them and dealt with them however they liked! Pakistan would have been a terror free nation if USA had not messed up everything here.

China has been concerned by Pakistan-based jihadists operating in Xinjiang and U.S. officials hope Beijing can be successful in persuading Pakistan to clamp down on the various Islamist groups operating from its soil.

I think this is a very valid point. There has been a major mindset change in the Pakistani society including military and civilian leadership. Probably Mr Haqqani is not aware of this change as he seldom reads or writes anything positive about Pakistan. Of course China has asked Pakistan to clamp down on terrorist networks in Pakistan which might be involved in aiding militants outside Pakistan especially in China. Pakistan military and civilian leadership have gone on an all out offensive against terrorists and militant organizations. Unfortunately USA’s policies in Pakistan only helped to propagate terrorists. Now that the Pakistan Army and other national security agencies are in full control of anti-insurgency and anti-terror operations, great progress and been made in a very short span of time. USA has provided Pakistan with some military hardware for use against terrorism but it seems that that too is pinching Mr Husain Haqqani and he even wrote some articles and gave some talks against this. But then Mr Haqqani has more than one supporter… how could he not render his services to India!   

But China’s economic reassurances could also reinforce Islamabad’s miscalculations about its regional clout and dangerous ambitions of keeping India strategically off-balance through subconventional means, including terrorism.

China it seems is much wiser and mature in terms of its foreign policies compared to USA’s cowboy approach. As for Pakistan, has no misconceptions about its strategic regional importance. Pakistan is also fully aware of its current economic situation and has been trying to build better relations with all its neighbors. Pakistan wants to promote economic cooperation with India, Iran, Afghanistan and China. Unfortunately India has failed to reciprocate Pakistan’s gesture of friendship and continues to hold hostile and aggressive posture. Now India, with their new found friendship with USA has become even more cocky. PM Modi, who was few months back not allowed to enter USA, is now President Obama’s BFF! So Mr Haqqani, please… give us a break!   

Just as Pakistan turned to the U.S. soon after independence in 1947 to seek weapons and economic assistance against India, Pakistan’s leaders today see China as a supporter in their bid to be India’s regional rival.

One would have assumed that Mr Haqqani would be more informed than this but then what do facts have to do with propaganda and why would a propaganda artist like Haqqani want to waste his time with truth and logic.

Soon after independence, Pakistan “had” to choose sides between the two great superpowers of the era. Was it like a flip of a coin decision, probably not but India being a natural soviet ally, Pakistan was “chosen” by USA as an ally. Pakistan was projected by USA as a successful and most economically viable new country. Great praise and honor was bestowed upon the leaders of Pakistan. USA provided Pakistan with economic and military support. USA wanted to create a frontline force to deal with Russia and its ally in the region. Pakistan was a new and unstable state with leaders looking for foreign recognition and support. USA’s mostly focused on military to military ties with Pakistan. This is evident from how USA has never actually opposed military dictatorship in Pakistan but rather used it for its own advantage.

Pakistan has experienced more than its fair share of problems in the form of wars, political crises, foreign policy misadventures, unbalanced alliances and internal mismanagement. Today, things have changed. Pakistan is a wiser and a more mature country. We continue to learn from our mistakes. China sees Pakistan as an important ally but more than that China sees Pakistan as a gateway to Arabian Sea access. It’s a combination that only a country like China can appreciate and make full use of. But China also knows that to make this work it must do all it can to stabilize Pakistan. Economic stability through infrastructure development can greatly benefit the people of Pakistan, especially in Balochistan. It’s a win-win situation for both allies.

The U.S. disappointed Islamabad by refusing to back its military confrontations with India even while selling Pakistan U.S. weapons (intended for other purposes). Now it might be China’s turn to be the object of unrealistic Pakistani expectations.

Pakistan has never had unrealistic expectations Mr Haqqani, Pakistan today does not want war with India or any other country in the world. We have enough problems of our own thanks to the US interference in the region. Today Pakistan wants security and economic stability to support and sustain its huge population of over 200 million people, majority of whom are young adults. Pakistan can be an investor’s paradise only if we can eliminate terrorism and overcome our energy shortage. With China’s multi-billion investment in infrastructure projects in Pakistan, there is great hope and achievable optimism.

By supporting Pakistan militarily, China has ensured that a large part of India’s military remains tied down in South Asia and is unable to challenge China in the rest of Asia.

It is India which considers China a threat. India is a paranoid state. It thinks Pakistan and its ISI are trying to plot against India all the time. India is the one initiating cross-border firing on the line of control between the two countries. Why doesn’t Mr Haqqani see India purchasing weapons worth billions of dollars from Russia and USA? Why does India need all this state of the art military hardware if does not want to dominate the region. Pakistan like any self respecting country would not like to be suppressed by a bully state, therefore it must ensure its security by building alliances and keeping its military as well equipped as possible. So by supporting Pakistan is not trying to make India do anything, It is India which is feeling threatened that that its control over the region may not remain supreme.     

But India remains the larger market and China’s willingness to use Pakistan as a secondary deterrent against India hasn’t meant abandoning ties with New Delhi. Chinese trade with India in 2013 was $65 billion, six times its trade with Pakistan. In Pakistan’s 1965 and 1971 wars with India, China disappointed Pakistan by not opening a second front against India.

 Again Mr Haqqani’s obsession with conflict and war makes his reasoning completely warped. China is not looking for wars (that is USA’s hobby), China is trying to expand its economic interests and in doing so transferring significantly huge benefits to its allies which fit in to its economic growth and expansion plan. China should not only continue its trade relations with India but also strive to make them even better.

China has a right to its foreign policy and it chose to not open a second front against India during Pakistan – India wars, then Pakistan must respect their decision and Pakistan must have accepted China’s decision proof of which is that Pakistan and China are still extremely strong allies.

None of this has affected the Pakistani perception of China as an all-weather friend. There is a huge gap in how Pakistanis view China and how the Chinese now view Pakistan. According to a 2014 Pew Research Center Global Attitudes survey, 78% of Pakistanis had a favorable view of China compared to only 30% of Chinese viewing Pakistan favorably—the same share of Chinese that had a favorable view of India.

Mr Haqani has very conveniently established that the majority of Chinese people do not like Pakistanis by quoting few figures from a survey. Many more surveys can be quoted proving otherwise. Additionally if Mr Haqqani’s logic is used on USA would prove devastating for the US as majority of the people have an extremely negative view of this crumbling superpower. Relations between countries are not built on shoddy surveys performed under dubious circumstances to achieve preconceived results. Relations are built between allies on mutual interest and trust and then these relations enable people to people contact.

Pakistan would benefit if all the billions in Chinese investment come through, but not all previous announcements of Chinese largesse have materialized in Pakistan or elsewhere. Despite announcing plans for more than $24 billion in investment into Indonesia since 2005, a decade later China has invested only $1.8 billion there.

China’s interest in building the economic corridor through Pakistan has become almost an urgent matter for the Chinese. They have already acquired the Gwadar Port in Balochistan on a forty years lease. To fully benefit from this deal, China has to follow up on the Corridor project on urgent basis. So Mr Haqqani has once again used out of context reasoning based on obsolete logic.

Instead of exhausting itself in competing with an Indian neighbor six times its size Pakistan needs to confront religious extremism, eliminate terrorism and pursue economic reforms that they talk about but do not implement.

Pakistan is not competing with its bigger neighbor. India might be six times bigger than Pakistan in size but it has failed to behave like a an emerging superpower. Its constant fear of what Pakistan might do or who is becoming Pakistan’s ally is a proof that actually it is India that is trying to compete with Pakistan. Pakistan want to benefit from the Indian economy and market but it seems that India will never forget that what was once the heart of India is now an independent and sovereign state.

As for fighting extremism is concerned, Pakistan military and civilian leadership has resolved to completely eliminate terrorism, National Action Plan specifically aims to do that. On the other hand ever since Mr Modi has taken over the PM’s role in India, Hindu extremists there have become extremely bold in targeting religious minorities. Hundreds of forced conversions have taken place where Muslims and Christians have been forced to convert to Hinduism. Some extremist Hindu leaders backed by leading Indian political parties have even proposed to shut down all churches and mosques in India and to place a Hindu god in every mosque and church.