The Cost of Azaadi

By Saman Tariq
ZoneAsia-Pk

There is a famous saying that everything comes with a price; the recent political crisis has already cost Pakistan more than could be bargained for.  Expanded over almost 10 days, the deadlock between two major political forces PTI and PML (N) still continues without any foreseeable resolution.  Where PTI is adamant on their demands, PML (N) has also made it clear that resignation of the PM and midterm elections are out of question.

Amid calls for resignation of the PM and speculations concerning a military coup; political uncertainty is looming over country’s economy. The economic brunt of this political crisis is evident by reports of a 222 points fall in Karachi stock market. In addition to that, traders have also shown concern over the prolonged sit-ins in the Capital and their likelihood to paralyze trade and business activities.  A Business Recorder report highlights the losses of Rs. 30 billion in local trade and businesses over 12 days following the political turmoil. Where PML (N) has claimed a loss of around Rs. 500 billion to the national economy due to these ongoing protests, other projects such as establishing ten coal fired power plants have also been stalled due to disinterest of the investors for the time being.

On international front, with an ongoing military operation in North Waziristan following terrorism allegations by Afghanistan, it is indeed a crucial time for Pakistan. The diplomatic efforts over the past few months and subsequent progress with another neighboring country India have also been halted after India canceled talks with Pakistan, accusing it of meddling in internal affairs of the former. Under these circumstances, when any international support for Pakistan is of high significance, particularly a SAARC member, Sri Lankan President, Mahinda Rajapaksa had to cancel his trip in the wake of current political situation of Pakistan.  Keeping in mind the current international standing of Pakistan, the harsh criticism of the U.S. Ambassador by Imran Khan for meddling into internal affairs of Pakistan is unlikely to have positive repercussions in the long term for Pak-US relations.

This confrontational politics is not free of cost even for the two major parties involved in this crisis. From the decision to carry on the with the march even after announcement of formation of an independent Judicial Commission to probe rigging allegations to their refusal to compromise on any of the six demands put forth , resignation of the PM being the top priority, PTI is on the point of no return .  The pressure of the crowd present at the sit-in to take concentrate actions for ousting of the PM is an added disadvantage as these supporters are also not willing to settle for anything less now, after days of sit-in. The sit-in might be gaining moment; depending on how one perceives it, however people have started raising questions over PTI’s perplexed rhetoric (http://www.zoneasia-pk.com/perplexed-rhetoric-pti/). Their abandonment of KPK is being cashed upon by other political forces in the province, with displaced families and floods taking a toll over other issues.

The government, on the other hand, is at the brink of losing credibility over allegations put forth by PTI, due to their reluctance towards the initial demand of PTI to probe into four allegedly rigged constituencies. The decision to probe into the matter through formation of an independent Judicial Commission is perhaps seen by many as a step too little too late. PML (N) with the baggage of 14 PAT workers killed by police in Lahore is being openly criticized for their dictatorial tactics. Out of other pressing issues, the pressure over federal government to facilitate displaced families is also worth mentioning.  The elders of North Waziristan Agency have shown discontent over the shelter provided in KPK, threatening to stage a protest outside the parliament if they are forced to vacate school buildings.

In the end, both parties are being blamed for negligence particularly in their respective provinces and needless to say, gaining from the loss of both PTI and PML (N), parties such as PPP, MQM and JI have emerged as rational mediating forces in current political crisis.

Another considerable downside of this turmoil has been the plausible space created for the military to exercise their influence, following the political deadlock. Perhaps both parties are relying on the army to exert pressure on the other political force to back down in their favor. Even as the ISPR issued statements over seeking a political solution by the parties involved, there were reports of an agreement between the PM and the military over a shared political space. If history is anything to go by, in civil-military relations, superseding of institutions by any single entity is unlikely to go in favor of the system.

While the talks between PTI and PML (N) have resumed after a standstill, the clash of egos between the two parties needs to discontinue in greater interest of the country. In sincere efforts to end this deadlock, a compromise should be agreed upon between the two, where legitimate demands such as resignation of CM Punjab, electoral reforms, probe over rigging and accountability if proved guilty should be accepted by the government; in return, PTI should withdraw the demand of PM’s resignation and let the due process take its course.  After all, it is high time that some amount of normalcy returns in the country.

Tahrir Square’s Branding Into The Azaadi Square: A Failed Attempt

ZoneAsia-Pk

As Pakistan steps into its second week of protests under the leaderships of Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri in what is portrayed as the besieged capital, Islamabad, many patriotic fans of both have compared the ‘Azaadi dharna’ to the likes of Tahrir Square’s protests commenced on the 25^th January, 2011, in which the Egyptian population took to the streets of Cairo in thousands to topple the 31 year old dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak.

The numerical value of ’31 years’ itself suggests that Islamabad’s ‘Azaadi Square’ isn’t of the same nature at all. Tahrir has now become a symbol or even a brand for revolutions which mass protests around the world, feel the need to associate with. Egypt, a country in the hands of the military since Nasser’s revolution of 1953, in which he successfully toppled the then Monarchy of King Faruk, narrates a completely different history to that of Pakistan’s. The Azaadi march for Pakistan this time round, despite many critics equating the Shareef regime as dictatorial, is against a regime that sought democratic transition of power after winning a majority. The second difference maintains that Egyptians flowed to Tahrir as a combined unit against the regime in power, off their own accord and not behind a leader. On many accounts it was rendered as a leaderless revolution, although it was hijacked by many political opportunists who organized themselves in to political parties, later. Pakistan’s so called ‘Azaadi square’ having the exact same meaning as ‘Tahrir’, however worked in the opposite direction when purposes of the two are put under closer scrutiny.

Masses gathering behind a political party in Pakistan dictating anecdotes of change that are in all honesty, feasible given the current state of the country; are being mobilized by leaders and are most likely blinded by the aspect that these political parties, despite demanding change on the surface, have a politically-drawn motive of self-interest behind their game; that of a power-grabbing struggle. Again, having a striking difference between the first round of the Tahrir square gatherings of 2011. Historically, Pakistan has seen mass-protests in the form of Tahrir’s likening during the revolution that ousted Pakistan’s first military dictator Ayoub Khan out and second, when a repeat of events occurred during the ousting of Musharraf as well. Ayub’s time generated masses of students, trade unions, worker unions and the more leftist side of society. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto then cashed on this opportunity and rose to power democratically. However, the mass movement during Musharraf’s time was instigated through one of the largest lawyer movements of Pakistan. The fervor in the people was similar to that of Tahrir Square’s as it was taking down another dictator and although hijacked by the political parties that once held heavy charges and were in exile, it was still successful in mounting pressure on the President to resign. As was the case of Tahrir Square, which led to Mubarak stepping down.

However, some similarities can be drawn in both the squares. They both saw mass protests- revolutionary in nature- against the ruling regime for the atrocities the regimes had or have put the people through. Second, the security forces deployed by the government to handle the crowd played an ambiguous role at the start. Even though the army and the police asserted a brutal crackdown on the Tahrir protesters, it later sided with the people and joined the crowds. In the case of the Azaadi Square, many supporters have seen the police taking the same role. Speculations drawn, have stated that the police is either highly tired of the fiasco that is going on in Islamabad or they are now siding the public as their credibility took a blow during the Model Town incident where they open fired on protesters resulting in the deaths of many and as a result have turned away from a government giving such orders.

The results of the so-called ‘Azaadi Square’ are still unknown and the political parties now demanding a resignation of the prime minister, have found themselves to be in a political deadlock. Only time will tell on whether the results of the Azaadi Square are parallel to that of Tahrir’s.