Pak – India: Playing with Fire

TACSTRAT ANALYSIS

For the past couple of months, both India and Pakistan have been engaged in low level shelling on each other’s positions across the Line of Control that bifurcates the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In recent weeks, we have witnessed a considerable rise in violence. Both the sides continue to blame the other for triggering violence and mutual threats suited to a war setting have followed ever since. In a welcome step, the chiefs of the Indian Border Security Force and its counterpart, the Pakistan Rangers, met in New Delhi over three days and from the outlook the talks seemed productive. This came after the calling off of NSA-level talks between the two neighbors, which had originally been agreed to by the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers on the sidelines of the SCO summit in UFA earlier in July, when they agreed to revive the dialogue process which has stuttered to a halt.

While such low intensity exchanges on the LoC have been witnessed in the past and the two sides have succeeded in keeping them localized affairs, the present situation is far more dangerous because many experts believe that this could be part of a larger strategic tussle about the nature of bilateral engagement. Pakistan is of the view that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is attempting to fundamentally and permanently alter the rules of engagement of the bilateral relationship by taking Kashmir off the negotiating table. While Pakistan previously adopted the policy of ‘Kashmir first’, Modi now seems to be shifting towards the other extreme of a ‘terrorism first’ approach. This is precisely what led to the NSA-talks being cancelled as Pakistan responded to Modi’s strategy by hyping up the Kashmir issue by inviting the Hurriyat leaders to meet its visiting national security adviser in Delhi—an accepted routine in the past.

Moeed Yusuf, a security expert, explains in his recent article that this hold up is a cause of concern. Apart from the obvious risks of escalation in a nuclearised environment, tensions at this stage will have direct consequences on the stability of the region. With the Pakistan army engaged in its most expansive counterterrorism operation on multiple fronts, any distraction on its eastern border will give the TTP and its affiliated al-Qaeda presence breathing space to rejuvenate its operations. This would be playing into the hands of al-Qaeda once again, as they previously took advantage of the tense situation that ensued between the neighbors after the 26/11 attacks. In an effort to push Modi to leave the rules of bilateral engagement untouched, Pakistan has raised the profile of recent LoC incidents. Modi is thus far unmoved since India continues to ride the international wave of support owing to its economic importance, and also the fact that the international community is more likely to consider terrorism as the more pressing concern compared the issue of Kashmir.

Many are also of the view that India could be looking to take advantage of the fact that the Pakistani army has been stretched throughout the country. This imbalance of our forces on two fronts, has encouraged India to test our nerves, by consistent violation of the Line of Control (LOC), and may well venture across the LOC to escalate the situation, India may also try to provoke Pakistan, violating Afghan borders, because it has considerable influence over there and their agents are fairly active on both sides of the border. Keeping such theories aside, both the sides need to take into consideration the delicate situation that exists in the region as a whole before they allow this crisis to escalate any further. Such petty tactical or strategic ploys cannot be played out in isolation without having a significant bearing on the already precarious situation in the region. India also needs to realize that it also has a stake in the war Pakistan is currently embroiled in. Rather than hyping up trivial issues and using the media as a tool to add to the already toxic atmosphere, it needs to look at the larger picture. Perhaps the Indian security administration has forgotten that the TTP is just a cog in the larger machine of al-Qaeda that serves the purpose of wreaking havoc in Pakistan as a reaction to its alliance with US on the war on terror. Al-Qaeda for years has been planning on making in-roads into India as it looks to expand its war-base in line with their ideology inspired by Syed Qutb. Therefore, instead of playing with fire, it is imperative that the two neighbors deal with the current situation in a more circumspect manner.