The need for an Iran-Pakistan detente

Tacstrat Analysis

It is seldom in contemporary politics and international relations that you see oft-repeated quotes from the past materializing into reality. Insanity may or may not be doing one thing again and again and expecting different results. Yet, the repertoire in official display since the past 20 years aimed at negotiating the intricacies of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is surely becoming homage by reality to the above quote by Albert Einstein. It has now become custom for the Pakistani side to issue a litany of excuses that could exempt them from upholding their share of the contractual agreement with their Western neighbor. It needs to be seen whether there can be genuine work done on the project and the agreement implemented or no productive outcome is likely to occur in the long-term. Moreover, the general trajectory of the Iranian-Pakistani relationship needs to be analyzed as a whole in order to understand its implications on cooperation of various kinds.

What should be taken as progress on this stalemate on the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is the fact that the Pakistani delegation in the recent visit to Iran on Tuesday made it clear to the other side that the project would not materialize unless the US sanctions on Iran were lifted. If we are to be well-integrated in the global market and to reap the fruits out of it as well, it is not pragmatic for now in this unipolar world to flaunt the strictures of the ‘empire’. The alternative is to completely isolate ourselves from the global power structure and to incur grave and massive economic losses in the process. What may not be taken as fate at this juncture is the complete paralysis of this project. The current Iranian President and his small overtures for peace do illustrate a glimmer of hope for rapprochement between the US and Iran.

The recent spate of cross-border attacks in which both the Iranian and Pakistani militaries have found themselves is somewhat troubling for the wider polarized direction the region might find itself in. From Iranian allegations of Pakistan not stopping the militant activity of Sunni Islamist groups such as Jundallah and Jaish al-Adl to the former’s forces unilaterally entering the latter’s territory in order to carry out a raid against anti-Iranian militants resulting in the death of a Pakistani soldier, the situation seems to have taken a turn for the worse despite meetings aimed at confidence building measures recently.

There is a need for both countries to be sensitive to the inhibitions and challenges of the other. A further escalation of trouble on the border can prove to be dangerous for Pakistan given the fact that its military is now stretched on already several different frontiers both in the east and the west. It must realize that the militants launching attacks in the past are also a threat to the people of Pakistan, especially to sectarian minorities such as the Shiites. Furthermore, Iran must also acknowledge the fact that persistent firing across the border in Pakistan will not suffice any more given the change in Pakistan’s response lately. This has resulted in diplomacy not being the only course of action available at the Pakistani side for now. The Pakistani forces have military responded in the latest confrontation. Genuine compromise must be made if we as neighbors are to avoid oft-repeated fears such as the Gwadar and Chabahar ports being signs of regional power contestations in the future.