Pakistan’s on-going war against
terrorism – the final push – has so far claimed more than 910 militants
in North Waziristan and decimated hundreds of militant camps. When
Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched, defence analysts from across the
board exhorted the government to take a hands-on approach and work with
the Army to develop a multi-pronged strategy to defeat extremism,
separate from terrorism, but as big a threat as the latter.
Yet the government initially appeared
not only reluctant to endorse a boots-on-the-ground approach but also
quickly became sucked into a political imbroglio that shifted the entire
country’s attention away from North Waziristan and the internally
displaced persons in Bannu, to the Capital. Efforts to engage all state
institutions in a political drama only served to exacerbate the
government’s own position and paved the path for deep-state to raise
eyebrows over the government’s legitimacy.
In the backdrop of the on-going military
operation, a national political crisis, regional politics immersed in
Machiavellian histrionics and the international security situation held
hostage by the Islamic State, a breakaway faction of the
Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan announced itself as the true vanguard that
would bring Shariah to Pakistan.
Many quarters have felt that the
formation of Jamatul Ahrar signifies a victory of sorts – Pakistan’s
largest militant threat developing defections from within shows weakness
and a dissonance that can allow the Army and government to end the TTP
question once and for all. Fragmentation can only mean smaller weaker
targets, easy to take out. The first sign of defeat for the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam was when it broke into factions, maybe the
stratagems that ended Sri Lanka’s 30-year-old war could also put an end
to militancy in Pakistan.
However, this needs to be examined in a larger context and it might just be too soon to bring out the champagne.
The TTP claims a certain a ideology.
Their’s is a war to reassert orthodox Islamic values in their own vein
of interpretation. The seed of war here stems not from social injustice,
a sense of deprivation or against foreign occupation – the seed is an
idea. When the government decided to hold talks with the TTP, there was
an outcry from within TTP structures that believed that there could no
compromise on ideas – that would be compromising divine mandate.
It was in the midst of these talks that
dissenting groups from within the TTP held attacks under the banner of
Ahrarul Hind to jeapordise negotiations. The bombing of a district
sessions court in Islamabad and the decapitation of Pakistan Army
soldiers was their handiwork. Brutal at best, one could compare their
line of ideology and strategy with the IS. The only difference was that
all factions claimed allegiance to Mullah Omar, head of the Afghan
Taliban under the Al-Qaeda umbrella.
The Jamat, with all the media-savyness
of former TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan, claims the support of 70 to 80
TTP commanders. In an hour and a half long video, Maulana Qasim
Khorasani (former TTP commander of Mohmand Agency chapter and inline to
succeed Hekimullah Mehsud) announces that the TTP has fallen prey to
self-seeking individuals (cue Mullah Fazalullah and all the commanders
who pushed for talks). Their war is to build a global Caliphate and they
will start from Pakistan. The group demonstrates no qualms about
violence, they justify it through religion.
Ehsan, in a statement released last
week, mentioned that while they were allied with the Afghan Taliban, the
IS provided a good example as to how they planned to operate.
This should not serve to alleviate fears
regarding militancy in Pakistan, this should serve to alarm. The group
is headed by emir Maulana Qasim Khorasani, and Ihsan is its spokesman.
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar’s shura, or executive council, includes: Omar Khalid al
Khorasani, the powerful commander from Mohmand; Mansoor Nazim Shura and
Maulana Haidar from Arakzai; Maulana Adbullah from Bajaur; Qari Ismail
from Khyber; Qari Shakil Haqqani from Charsadda; Mufti Misbah from
Peshawar; and Maulana Yasin from Swat. The Jamat includes Taliban
factions from the tribal agencies of Mohmand, Bajaur, Khyber, and
Arakzai, and the districts of Charsadda, Peshawar, and Swat.
By providing these groups an alternative
to peace talks, we see the emergence of a new umbrella organisation,
seemingly as big as the TTP if not bigger (if Ehsan is to be believed).
The group claims that it will stop at nothing to achieve it’s goal of
Islamic dominance in the world and they were willing to sacrifice for
it.
This leaves the government with no
excuse. The Pakistan National Security Council needs to come into action
and develop a strategy to deal with new emerging threats. What with the
announcement of an Al-Qaeda wing in India, these threats cannot be
taken lightly. In a region where physical borders are more than just
porous, collective action by the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan
and India is the need of the hour. There is no question of complacency
here.
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