Clueless, Confused and In The Dark

Tacstrat Analysis

The Islamabad Police and Administration do not – as of yet – have any clear orders on how to deal with the upcoming Azadi March; and seem positioned (unwillingly or deliberately) to repeat the mistakes made by the Punjab Police since June 2014…

When the 2009 Long March took place, Lahore turned into a veritable battlefield. The current incumbents – the PML-N and the PTI – were engaged in pitched street battles with the Punjab Police just days after the Shahbaz Sharif government was removed from power and Governor’s Rule imposed in the province. Though it had been two years since the judiciary was dismissed by former President Pervez Musharraf, and the PPP had come into power in the Presidency as well as the PM’s office, the dismissal of the PML-N provincial government was seen as “the right time” to launch a protest movement along with the lawyers and other democratic forces to pressure the-then government to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry to his office. During the pitched battles between party workers – most of them from the youth – and the police, the former ultimately overwhelmed the latter, and the DCO Lahore arrived at GPO Chowk (the scene of the most brutal showdowns) in person and “surrendered”. The rest, as they say, is history. The CJP, as well as the Shahbaz Sharif government, was restored; and five years on, the PML-N now holds the reins of the federal government as well as the Punjab government.

This time, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) are planning an “Azadi March” (freedom march) and “Inqilabi March” (revolutionary march), respectively, on the federal capital. The main differences between 2009 and now? In 2009, the Long March dissipated halfway – with the PML-N turning back from Gujranwala while other parties had already reached Islamabad – on the alleged intervention and guarantee of the-then COAS, wherein the PML-N government and the “de jure” CJP were restored. This time, both Imran Khan of the PTI and Dr. Tahir-ul-Qadri of the PAT have said that if either of these leaders stop halfway or return without achieving their goal(s) – of overthrowing the PML-N government and/or an overhaul of the entire governance system – then they should be “martyred”. Needless to say, after all this hype, if any of these march leaders do not follow through with their plans, they will have dug their own political graves at the very least.

Since June 16-17, the Punjab Police has been engaged with PAT workers in confrontations of various degrees: in June, the police and provincial government acknowledged their heavyhandedness which cost the lives of over a dozen people and resulted in bullet wounds to almost 90 other people. Since the end of the month of Ramadan, the police effectively sealed off the Model Town locality of Lahore – where the PAT chief and the Minhaj-ul-Quran secretariat are located – by putting containers and barbed wires along with police contingents at various edges of the locality. Electricity and water supplies were also allegedly cut off, adding to the ire of the local people who took the fight to the police and law enforcers on Friday. Confrontations erupted between PAT workers and the police near Faisal Town and Jinnah Hospital: the police fired teargas shells but was forced to retreat as people removed the barricades and containers which they claimed had turned Model Town into Gaza (a part of the Occupied Territories of Palestine which have been under Israeli blockade since 2007).

The PAT upped the ante by announcing on August 10 (when they observed “Youm-e-Shuhada”, a day of martyrs, as they offered prayers and recited the Holy Quran – before returning to their political messaging) that they would be joining forces with the PTI and will march on the federal capital together (or simultaneously if not together) on August 14.

The question in everyone’s – especially the PML-N’s – mind is as follows: if the police was unable to “handle” a few hundred PAT workers, how will it be able to deal with thousands of PTI workers (the part received the second largest number of votes in the May 2013 elections) if they become aggressive and agitate against the police and their barricades? Punjab Police officials, on condition of anonymity, said that before June 17, the-then Law Minister had authorized use of force against unarmed protesters despite the reservations of the Lahore city administration officials – the Minister had the support of the provincial chief executive in this matter, and this is why live rounds were fired: on the permission if not orders of the Chief Minister. Even more revealing is the fact that – true to his style of governance – the Punjab CM refused to own up to his share of the blame and sacrificed his Law Minister instead; in addition, during subsequent police shakeups in the province that are still ongoing, the Chief Minister is not promoting or appointing capable, efficacious, responsible, dedicated and dutiful officers who know how to do their job – he continues to promote “yes-men” one above the other, obviously oblivious to the fact that he needs competent law enforcers guided by effective police leadership instead of his own personal henchmen and yes-men for the mission at hand. Another police official confided that, “instead of understanding that use of force will not succeed and will also damage the government’s public image in terms of perception and optics, the order for use of force was issued to police throughout the province, along with orders to arrest protesters and PAT workers by any means necessary – this led to more police brutality and barbarism, which has been captured by the media’s eye and has become ammunition for the PML-N’s opponents”. Even the rank and file of the Punjab Police was disgusted when the provincial government engaged the PAT in the race to see who has more “martyrs”: by claiming that the PAT had murdered two policemen, the Punjab government was unable to cover the fact that one policeman was killed while resisting robbers in Mughalpura area (far away from Model Town) whereas the other “martyr” was not even a policeman – he was the private driver of a judicial officer who was killed in crossfire, and was already dead and buried before the funeral for the “police martyrs” was arranged. News media openly questioned government and police officials that they had been told of two police deaths, while only one dead body was present at the funeral prayers for the police martyrs (this being the body of the policeman who was not even deployed at Model Town, and was killed in a completely different and unrelated incident of crime). When asked if they would respond on or off the record to claims by the PAT chief that Punjab CM Shahbaz Sharif had recruited “terrorists” within the ranks of the police, who would don plainclothes and would kill policemen so that the government could say that protesters were responsible for the murder of law enforcers, they refused to comment on the government’s methods and policies for recruitment over the last seven years or over the issue/allegation that “terrorists” were employed by the Punjab Police and enjoyed the status of plainclothes officers like the elite CID or intelligence or Special Branch personnel. In all, police officials as senior as the rank of SSP and DIG appeared to be depressed and dismayed at being reprimanded and transferred on not being able to do a job that they were not supposed to do in the first place, and are prohibited by law and the penal code to do so in any case. Yet, the provincial government and its autocratic leader have yet to see the fault in themselves, and add to that list the demoralization of the Punjab Police that is their only real contribution to the force since the last seven years.

In the recently held Corps Commanders Conference, formation commanders and principal staff officers of the Pakistan Army have categorically declared that they will not allow terrorists to return to Pakistan or establish a foothold anywhere in the country. This is a strictly professional remark coming just a few days after the military was seemingly dragged into national politics when the PM addressed the media after holding a National Security Conference (in which he also discussed protests by opposition political parties and groups). It is obvious that when the military took stock of the internal security situation, it would have also considered various scenarios that could be witnessed in the federal capital, along with the associated outcomes and the military’s role in all of these conditions. The general public is obviously not privy to these discussions – however, it has been made clear by a number of politicians and mediapersons that the military was “not happy” at being made to sit and watch at what was supposed to be a professional, administrative meeting regarding national security which turned into a forum for the Prime Minister to send political messages to his opponents.

As the PML-N tries different ways and means to deal with the situation and stay in power, it has been taking a variety of uniquely odd and excessive security measures throughout the Punjab province for over one week now. The GT Road and Lahore-Islamabad Motorway have been blocked for all kinds of traffic; routes in and out of Lahore, and even from other parts of Punjab to Lahore, are being forcibly shut down by heavy contingents of Punjab Police; the city of Islamabad resembles a wartorn city from the tribal areas, as almost all major and minor roads have been dug up to prevent commuters from using them. More than 700 containers have been brought into the federal capital to “seal” the city, while 500 Army personnel (acting in aid of civil power under Article 245 – a move condemned by many political parties) in addition to thousands of policemen and an unknown number of paramilitary Rangers have been called in for securing the federal capital.

At the end of the day, the fact remains that civilian law enforcers in Islamabad are unaware regarding their exact mandate on August 14: so far, the Interior Ministry has issued no guidelines or SOPs to the cops regarding what to do and what not to do – partly because the government thinks it can still prevent the protest marches, which is akin to avoiding the unavoidable as the PTI has staked its entire political capital and political future on the August 14 “azadi march”. Apparently, this reflects the PML-N’s continued state of panic, and the bureaucracy’s uncertainty on how to deal with civilian protesters who have not asked for the capital city administration’s permission, nor have agreed to any terms setting the limits and boundaries of the protest march and/or the sit-in. The PTI chief and other party leaders have emphatically said that their march and sit-in will be peaceful, and that neither the police nor the bureaucracy should try to control the protesters or impose their (or the government’s) will on them, implying that the backlash will be uncontrollable. And since no clear policy or guidelines have been issued to the deployed forces, it is extremely likely that unwarranted and catastrophic incidents might take place. It will be a testament to the PML-N’s continued ineffective governance and sheer incapability at maintaining law and order if the mayhem, ruckus, disorder and police brutality unleashed in Punjab finds its way into Islamabad; over and above the measures taken by the government and administration which are making even the citizens of Islamabad angry, since the protest or march or sit-in hasn’t even begun, but the roads and transport links have already been destroyed, the city has already been sealed with containers, and the shortage of petrol is becoming more and more acute as each day passes. This confirms the impression presented by opposition politicians that the PML-N is its own worst enemy.

Even till Tuesday (today) evening, senior police officials in the Punjab Police were being shuffled around, reflecting the same state of panic at the echelons of the PML-N’s decisionmaking process (i.e. the Sharif brothers) that was witnessed after June 17, when the IG Police was transferred and the Law Minister tendered his resignation. That, however, did nothing to quell the situation or the anger of the public, and perhaps only added fuel to the fire by giving the PAT the impression that it had scored a victory. The more the police tried to “control” the angry PAT workers, the more opportunities the latter were given (or they forcibly took) to go out of control. Ultimately, during the last weekend, even as Model Town remained under siege and even the most basic of food items could not find their way in (while shortages of essential items are driving food prices through the roof all over the city of Lahore and the province of Punjab), the PAT was able to create its own “protective force” armed with batons, shields, helmets and gas masks. This capability raises more problems for law enforcers in Punjab as well as Islamabad, who appear to be stuck between a rock and a very hard place: on one side, the protesters promising a tsunami of people that nobody would be able to control; and the jittery PML-N on the other side, which is resorting to desperate tactics in terms of defensive security policies that have made life hell for the general public (like digging up roads, and the unavailability of fuel for the past few days) as well as political machinations and contacting anyone and everyone who would support them in the name of democracy. The federal government and Interior Ministry must immediately develop a robust policy framework to deal with the upcoming protest marches, lest they deliberately want the situation to go out of control and be forced out of government after bloody battles between police and protesters take place in the federal capital while a military operation is ongoing in North Waziristan.

If the PML-N has decided that it will neither quit nor resign, then it must take a few pages out former President Zardari’s book – who faced more than his fair share of protest marches but neither lost his cool nor lost the capacity to complete the full five years of his government’s tenure – and act accordingly. If police or other security forces, who will be armed with live ammunition (and have already used it against unarmed citizens in Lahore and elsewhere in Punjab), engage protesters (who will be determined to sit-in at D-Chowk, the edge of the Islamabad “Red Zone”, which is the most secure area of the federal capital) in a disproportionate and heavy handed manner, then there will be no guarantee as to what the angry protesters from the PTI and PAT will end up doing. Other political parties will be content by sitting on the sidelines and by condemning police brutality which will in fact be cutting short the PML-N government’s lifespan. By not clarifying the rules of engagement for the police and the paramilitary in Islamabad, the PML-N seems destined to repeat the mistakes made in Lahore instead of learning from them and developing a policy framework for public security even when protesters refuse to talk to or negotiate with the police and/or administration.

Instead of being a victim of sheer panic and anxiety, the PML-N should take some fresh breaths, drink a cold glass of “lassi”, and talk to both the PPP and the Army as to what policies they should adopt – since they have failed at establishing their writ or supremacy by use of force – in order to defeat the protesters without playing into their hands and losing their government: which is exactly what President Zardari was able to do. The PTI chairman foresees elections in December 2014, while the PAT chief says that the present government (and perhaps “system” too) will not exist beyond the month of August. At the rate things are going, the PML-N seems to be its own worst enemy by unwillingly fulfilling the aspirations of these opponents. Though it may definitely be too late for it, but the PML-N government needs to improve its bargaining position as well as its image in the eyes of the people of Punjab and Islamabad. The citizens of Lahore and Islamabad definitely need relief, and the PML-N will be adding to its enemies if it continues to impose hurdles and inconveniences in the name of public security. A novel, thoroughly conceptualized, well thought-out plan is the need of the hour if the PML-N (read: the Sharif brothers) want to save their government and complete their five year tenure. Otherwise they will continue to be their own worst enemy and do more for the cause of their undoing than anyone else: the PTI and PAT will only be hammering in the final nail to a coffin that has already been cemented shut by the PML-N itself, its nepotistic way of (ineffective) governance, and its policies which make sense neither to the layman in the general public, nor to a professor of political science and how politics works in the Third World today.