Tacstrat Analysis
Jihadi, Sheikh, scholar, worker, worshipper, Imam, gallant reformer, descendent from the prophetic household and slave of God – is how Abu Mohammed Adnani, spokesman for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, describes the credentials for Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, who was declared “Caliph of all Muslims” by the ISIS on Saturday. The “caliphate” carved by the ISIS stretches from Iraq’s Diyala province to Syria’s Aleppo. The ISIS celebrated what it termed was the removal of “the limits of humiliation”, a reference to the border between Syria and Iraq, the demarcation of which was a product of the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement.
Background
ISIS draws its roots from the group, Al-Qaida in Iraq, established in April 2004 by cleric Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The AQI fought pitted battles against coalition forces and led pressure campaigns telling people not to support the US-led invasion. Zarqawi was killed in an airstrike in 2006 and the new face of AQI, Abu Ayyub al-Masri sought to politicise their insurgency and drew on Iraqi nationalism as an ideological force. The same year, Masri announced the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq, led by Iraqi national Abu Umar al-Baghdadi. The Islamic State of Iraq’s relationship with Al-Qaida was fraught with ideological schisms. Al-Qaida’s leaders often voiced concerns that the Islamic State of Iraq’s policy of indiscriminate violence was alienating Al-Qaida from popular thought.
Masri and Baghdadi were killed in April 2010 and it was the next leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who would bring about the Islamic State of Iraq’s divorce with Al-Qaida. The new leader had a vision far wider than the emancipation of Iraq from foreign occupation.
As the AQI moved into Syria, in April 2013, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi changed the organisation’s name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In an audio recording in April 2013, he said that al-Nusrah Front in Syria was part of the Islamic State in Iraq and their goal was to establish an Islamic state in Iraq and Syria. He claimed that that the groups were merging. In what would be a series of contradictory statements, the al-Nusrah Front denied the merger and pledged allegiance directly to al-Zawahiri. As al-Zawahiri tried to mediate and declared al-Nusrah the official Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, the newly formed ISIL defied high command and stepped up operations in Syria. Al-Nusrah and ISIL groups turned on each other, further cementing the break.
Composition
Widely believed to have been the sanctuary for military leaders under former Iraq president Saddam Hussein, today ISIS hosts militants from up to 70 countries. The influx of hundreds of thousands of foreign militants into Syria meant that the ISIS had a large pool of militants to choose from.
While the world fretted about Al-Qaida moving in to fill the vacuum created by clashes between Asad’s government and rebels, the ISIS provided fighters a platform led by a seasoned military commander, by then considered more authoritative than Al-Qaeda’s al-Zawahiri. Interestingly enough, the US and Turkey continued to backchannel funds and arms to militants in Syria, allowing the militant problem to fester. Any lessons learnt from the US-Soviet proxy war in Afghanistan in the 1980s were conveniently forgotten.
According to BBC, 80 per cent of Western fighters in Syria have joined the group. ISIS claims to have fighters from the UK, France, Germany and other European countries, as well as the US, the Arab world and the Caucasus.
Funding
Recently, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani made a thinly veiled reference to “Muslim countries that support the terrorists with their petrodollars”. He was alluding to Saudi Arabia. Syria too has repeatedly pointed at Saudi Arabia as the source of most of the funding for ISIS. Several other Persian Gulf/Middle Eastern countries including Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have been accused as well.
But ISIS sources of funding go beyond any of the sources henceforth tapped by militant groups. By using the internet and social media to raise awareness and reach individual donors, ISIS makes appeals for donations (or investments) via the internet. A lot of the money is transferred, withdrawn and transported in the form of bags of cash.
The group had taken over Syria’s eastern oil fields and was reportedly selling oil to the government. It had sold ancient artefacts worth hundreds of thousands of rupees to raise funds. But it was the June 10 bank heist in Mosul that brought attention to how much capital the militant organisation owned. ISIS operatives reportedly stole up to $425 million in cash in the largest bank holdup in recent memory.
The group even has a clothing line, with a line of t-shirts and hoodies that cost between $7 and $13. The group is considered as tech-savvy as it is deadly on the ground and has been selling merchandise over the internet and telephones in several countries.
At present, ISIS has an estimated $2 billion in funds.
Enter the caliphate
“The khalīfah Ibrāhīm (may Allah preserve him) has fulfilled all the conditions for khilāfah mentioned by the scholars. He was given bay’ah in Iraq by the people of authority in the Islamic State as the successor to Abū ‘Umar al-Baghdādī (may Allah have mercy upon him). His authority has expanded over wide areas in Iraq and Shām. The land now submits to his order and authority from Aleppo to Diyala. So fear Allah, O slaves of Allah. Listen to your khalīfah and obey him. Support your state, which grows everyday – by Allah’s grace – with honour and loftiness, while its enemy increases in retreat and defeat”
Reads a statement recently released by Adnani announcing the new caliphate in the Levant and Iraq. The group’s expansionist plans, however, are not limited to the area alone. Many analysts fear that their next stop is Saudi Arabia. Analysts believe that if ISIS were to penetrate the Saudi border, the group’s first stop would probably be the Saudi town of Arar, where the Saudi military is stationed. They say the ISIS push into Saudi Arabia could be even easier than in Iraq considering the overwhelming support it has from the Sunni majority population.
The emergence of ISIS signals a hundred-year war for the gulf and all Middle Eastern countries. Growing dissent amongst the populace and unhindered channelling of funds to the organisation provide it the nurturing ground it needs to thrive.
As the US and Iran prepare to launch an offensive against the militant organisation, the region is going to prepare for what is probably the first of several unlikely alliances.
Jihadi, Sheikh, scholar, worker, worshipper, Imam, gallant reformer, descendent from the prophetic household and slave of God – is how Abu Mohammed Adnani, spokesman for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, describes the credentials for Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, who was declared “Caliph of all Muslims” by the ISIS on Saturday. The “caliphate” carved by the ISIS stretches from Iraq’s Diyala province to Syria’s Aleppo. The ISIS celebrated what it termed was the removal of “the limits of humiliation”, a reference to the border between Syria and Iraq, the demarcation of which was a product of the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement.
Map showing ISIS plans to push further into Europe and Far East
Background
ISIS draws its roots from the group, Al-Qaida in Iraq, established in April 2004 by cleric Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The AQI fought pitted battles against coalition forces and led pressure campaigns telling people not to support the US-led invasion. Zarqawi was killed in an airstrike in 2006 and the new face of AQI, Abu Ayyub al-Masri sought to politicise their insurgency and drew on Iraqi nationalism as an ideological force. The same year, Masri announced the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq, led by Iraqi national Abu Umar al-Baghdadi. The Islamic State of Iraq’s relationship with Al-Qaida was fraught with ideological schisms. Al-Qaida’s leaders often voiced concerns that the Islamic State of Iraq’s policy of indiscriminate violence was alienating Al-Qaida from popular thought.
Masri and Baghdadi were killed in April 2010 and it was the next leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who would bring about the Islamic State of Iraq’s divorce with Al-Qaida. The new leader had a vision far wider than the emancipation of Iraq from foreign occupation.
As the AQI moved into Syria, in April 2013, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi changed the organisation’s name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In an audio recording in April 2013, he said that al-Nusrah Front in Syria was part of the Islamic State in Iraq and their goal was to establish an Islamic state in Iraq and Syria. He claimed that that the groups were merging. In what would be a series of contradictory statements, the al-Nusrah Front denied the merger and pledged allegiance directly to al-Zawahiri. As al-Zawahiri tried to mediate and declared al-Nusrah the official Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, the newly formed ISIL defied high command and stepped up operations in Syria. Al-Nusrah and ISIL groups turned on each other, further cementing the break.
Composition
Widely believed to have been the sanctuary for military leaders under former Iraq president Saddam Hussein, today ISIS hosts militants from up to 70 countries. The influx of hundreds of thousands of foreign militants into Syria meant that the ISIS had a large pool of militants to choose from.
While the world fretted about Al-Qaida moving in to fill the vacuum created by clashes between Asad’s government and rebels, the ISIS provided fighters a platform led by a seasoned military commander, by then considered more authoritative than Al-Qaeda’s al-Zawahiri. Interestingly enough, the US and Turkey continued to backchannel funds and arms to militants in Syria, allowing the militant problem to fester. Any lessons learnt from the US-Soviet proxy war in Afghanistan in the 1980s were conveniently forgotten.
According to BBC, 80 per cent of Western fighters in Syria have joined the group. ISIS claims to have fighters from the UK, France, Germany and other European countries, as well as the US, the Arab world and the Caucasus.
Funding
Recently, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani made a thinly veiled reference to “Muslim countries that support the terrorists with their petrodollars”. He was alluding to Saudi Arabia. Syria too has repeatedly pointed at Saudi Arabia as the source of most of the funding for ISIS. Several other Persian Gulf/Middle Eastern countries including Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have been accused as well.
But ISIS sources of funding go beyond any of the sources henceforth tapped by militant groups. By using the internet and social media to raise awareness and reach individual donors, ISIS makes appeals for donations (or investments) via the internet. A lot of the money is transferred, withdrawn and transported in the form of bags of cash.
The group had taken over Syria’s eastern oil fields and was reportedly selling oil to the government. It had sold ancient artefacts worth hundreds of thousands of rupees to raise funds. But it was the June 10 bank heist in Mosul that brought attention to how much capital the militant organisation owned. ISIS operatives reportedly stole up to $425 million in cash in the largest bank holdup in recent memory.
The group even has a clothing line, with a line of t-shirts and hoodies that cost between $7 and $13. The group is considered as tech-savvy as it is deadly on the ground and has been selling merchandise over the internet and telephones in several countries.
At present, ISIS has an estimated $2 billion in funds.
Enter the caliphate
“The khalīfah Ibrāhīm (may Allah preserve him) has fulfilled all the conditions for khilāfah mentioned by the scholars. He was given bay’ah in Iraq by the people of authority in the Islamic State as the successor to Abū ‘Umar al-Baghdādī (may Allah have mercy upon him). His authority has expanded over wide areas in Iraq and Shām. The land now submits to his order and authority from Aleppo to Diyala. So fear Allah, O slaves of Allah. Listen to your khalīfah and obey him. Support your state, which grows everyday – by Allah’s grace – with honour and loftiness, while its enemy increases in retreat and defeat”
Reads a statement recently released by Adnani announcing the new caliphate in the Levant and Iraq. The group’s expansionist plans, however, are not limited to the area alone. Many analysts fear that their next stop is Saudi Arabia. Analysts believe that if ISIS were to penetrate the Saudi border, the group’s first stop would probably be the Saudi town of Arar, where the Saudi military is stationed. They say the ISIS push into Saudi Arabia could be even easier than in Iraq considering the overwhelming support it has from the Sunni majority population.
The emergence of ISIS signals a hundred-year war for the gulf and all Middle Eastern countries. Growing dissent amongst the populace and unhindered channelling of funds to the organisation provide it the nurturing ground it needs to thrive.
As the US and Iran prepare to launch an offensive against the militant organisation, the region is going to prepare for what is probably the first of several unlikely alliances.
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